After 28 games, it’s safe to say that this year’s edition of the Texas Longhorns has vastly outperformed expectations. Coming off of a season in which the Longhorns sprinted out to a 17-0 start, only to lose seven of their next ten and get bounced in the first round of the NCAA tournament, the burnt orange faithful had understandably tempered hopes for 2010-11.

But now, with the Longhorns posting a stellar 24-4 mark and sitting at 12-1 in the Big 12, there are much bigger goals in play. Texas is still solidly in the mix for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, with the possibility of playing close to home in the San Antonio regional. Texas can also win their first Big 12 title since 2008, and the team still has a chance to win the conference title outright. No school besides Kansas has claimed an outright Big 12 championship since 2004, when Oklahoma State won the league en route to a Final Four berth.

Unfortunately, the final three games for the Longhorns could provide multiple stumbling blocks on the way to those goals. Texas finishes the schedule by hosting Kansas State and traveling to Waco to face Baylor, but first must try to pull off the road victory this afternoon in Colorado. The Buffaloes have also been a team that has exceeded expectations this season, finding themselves in a three-way tie for sixth coming into this game.

First-year coach Tad Boyle has immediately built buzz around the program. While the Coors Event Center has often felt like a library in past seasons, this year it has been packed even against opponents not named Kansas. The atmosphere should be electric this afternoon, as Colorado looks for another marquee win to get them off the bubble and into the NCAA tournament.

By the numbers

Colorado has a highly efficient offense, but the numbers fail to tell the entire story. The Buffaloes have an adjusted offensive mark of 1.132 points per possession, but also played one of the weakest non-conference schedules in the entire country. In conference play, Colorado’s offense has managed just 1.042 points each time down the court, still good for fifth in the league.

With excellent guards in the backcourt, the Buffaloes are able to push the pace at will. While their average tempo is right in the middle of the pack in the Big 12, Colorado is always a threat to score quickly in transition. Not only do they have three good ball-handling guards, but they can also let 6’7″ senior Marcus Relphorde bring the ball up the floor. That offensive flexibility makes it very easy for the Buffs to score on the break.

Defensively, Colorado does a great job switching on screens. With so many of their players ranging from 6’4″ to 6’7″, it’s rare that the automatic switching will lead to a defensive mismatch. Coach Boyle also loves to mix up his looks during a game, tossing out different zones in addition to the standard man-to-man. Statistically speaking, the Colorado defense is sound, but average. They have allowed just 0.995 points per possession on the year, but are giving up 1.062 points per trip against the tougher Big 12 competition.

One other statistic worth noting is the ability for the Colorado guards to get to the line. Alec Burks and Cory Higgins combine to average more than 12.4 free throws per game, with Burks posting a free-throw rate of nearly 53%. For a backcourt player, an FTR that high is exceptional.

Burks and Higgins also know how to make it count once they get to the line, as they make 86.8% of their free throws. As a team, Colorado is knocking down 79.1% of their attempts at the line, the third-best mark in Division I basketball.

Meet the Buffaloes

Colorado is led by a skilled pair in the backcourt, with sophomore Alec Burks chipping in more than 19 points per game, good enough for third in the Big 12. At 6’6″, he’s a terrible mismatch for most opposing guards, and is incredibly quick off the dribble. While the Longhorn defense has done a solid job shutting down slashing guards so far this season, they are going to have their hands full with Burks this afternoon.

Joining Burks in the backcourt is senior Cory Higgins, son of former NBA star Rod Higgins. He’s providing 16 points per game so far this season for the Buffaloes, but also makes a huge contribution with his quick hands on defense. Over the last two years, Higgins has rounded out his game by improving his three-point shot, and he’s made 36% of those attempts so far this year.

While Burks and Higgins have been a nearly unstoppable tandem this season, the one knock on both of their games is an unfortunate predilection for picking up offensive fouls. Look for the Longhorn defense to draw a foul or two on the Colorado guards simply by holding their ground against an over-eager Burks or Higgins.

Running the point is Australian product Nate Tomlinson, who is only playing about 20 minutes per game despite starting 22 times. He is simply a facilitator for the offense, and his prescient court vision sets up the Colorado shooters time and again. Tomlinson is logging an assist on more than 18% of the CU buckets when he’s on the court, a number that would likely be even higher if Burks and Higgins weren’t able to create so often on their own.

Senior Marcus Relphorde is a 6’7″ swingman for Coach Boyle and the Buffaloes, and he has exceptional handles that allow him to easily attack from the wings and corners. He is one of only two players to start every game for Colorado this season, and he’s contributing 11.4 points and 4.3 rebounds per game.

Although Relphorde has added a three-point shot to his arsenal, he has limited the attempts this season after firing them up indiscriminately last year. Relphorde has only taken 68 attempts behind the arc this season, but has one of the team’s best accuracy marks at 38.2%.

The other Buffalo to start every game is junior big man Austin Dufault. Colorado loves to space the floor and create space for drivers and cutters, so unfortunately Dufault’s rebounding numbers are fairly pedestrian for a 6’9″ guy. He’s averaging only 4.4 boards per game to go with his 7.6 points, and he’s struggled somewhat with his typically-sound midrange jumper this season.

Although Dufault has been struggling, the arrival of freshman Andre Roberson has helped to shore things up in the Colorado frontcourt. Out of San Antonio, Roberson is a tenacious rebounder and shot blocker, and actually leads the team in both categories despite being the sixth man. In just 21 minutes per game, the 6’7″ freshman has 7.3 boards per game and 27 blocks. While Roberson is already making an impact this season, he’s destined to become a household name with Pac 10 fans next year.

Off the bench, Coach Boyle gives a lot of minutes to sharpshooter Levi Knutson. Despite starting only five games this year, Knutson is averaging more than 26 minutes and has ignited many a Colorado run with his hot hand behind the arc. In a road win over Kansas State, Knutson was 6-for-8 from behind the arc, and he knocked down five triples just a week later at Nebraska. On the season, he’s made 47% of his threes, tops in the Big 12 by a wide margin.

Also coming off the bench for Colorado is redshirt freshman Shannon Sharpe. After surgery cost him the 2009-10 season, Sharpe is playing about 15 minutes per game in the backcourt. A short, strong guard, Sharpe could be described as a sleeker Lance Jeter or Byron Eaton.

Sharpe is athletic and can attack off the dribble, but has yet to show a consistent enough jump shot to cause defenses to play tightly on him. If he could start knocking down the J, he would be able to take advantage of the tighter defense and then showcase that strength in finishing at the rim.

Keys to the game

For the Longhorns, the biggest thing in this afternoon’s game is winning the rebounding battle. When Colorado jumped out to a 3-0 start in conference play, they did so on the strength of outrebounding their opponents. Even in a road game against a bigger, more physical Kansas State team, the Buffs won the battle on the glass, and ultimately escaped with the win.

Texas is also bigger and more physical than Colorado, but the Horns have had inexplicable stretches of weak play on the glass. If they allow the Buffaloes to overcome their natural disadvantage, it will only serve to bolster Colorado’s upset chances this afternoon.

The Longhorns must also play sound team defense. Colorado knows how to spread out the floor and then force defenses to react by driving the lane. The Buffaloes move the ball very quickly and have a handful of shooters that can knock it down from outside. Texas will likely have to rotate and provide a lot of help defense this afternoon, so the Horns must communicate well on defense to avoid lapses that lead to easy buckets.

Finally, we’ll be looking for Texas to beat Colorado inside. The Buffaloes have a short bench and a definite lack of depth in the frontcourt. With the Longhorns already enjoying a size advantage inside, attacking the paint and drawing fouls on the Colorado bigs will only make things easier for Texas later in the game. Roberson has fouled out four times this season, while Dufault has done the same on two occasions. Although Tristan Thompson will struggle knocking down his free throws when he’s fouled inside, the trade-off of forcing Colorado to an even smaller lineup should pay off.

TEAM W L FINAL THREE GAMES Texas 12 1 at CU (2/26), vs. KSU (2/28), at BU (3/5) Kansas 11 2 at OU (2/26), vs. A&M (3/2), at Mizzou (3/5) Texas A&M 9 4 at BU (2/26), at KU (3/2), vs. TTU (3/5) Missouri 8 5 at KSU (2/26), at Neb (3/1), vs. KU (3/5) Kansas State 7 6 vs. Mizzou (2/26), at UT (2/28), vs. ISU (3/5) Baylor 6 7 vs. A&M (2/26), at OSU (3/1), vs. UT (3/5) Nebraska 6 7 at ISU (2/26), vs. Mizzou (3/1), at CU (3/5) Colorado 6 7 vs. UT (2/26), at ISU (3/2), vs. Neb (3/5) Oklahoma 4 9 vs. KU (2/26), at TTU (3/2), vs. OSU (3/5) Oklahoma State 4 9 vs. TTU (2/26), vs. BU (3/1), at OU (3/5) Texas Tech 4 9 at OSU (2/26), vs. OU (3/2), at A&M (3/5) Iowa State 1 12 vs. Neb (2/26), vs. CU (3/2), at KSU (3/5)

The big picture

With the top of the league beating up on the bottom while the middle of the pack squared off, the mid-week games in the Big 12 served only to split the league into three distinct factions. With mid-week wins, Kansas and Texas A&M joined the Longhorns as teams with conference tournament byes already clinched. The Jayhawks are thinking much bigger, however, as their six-year streak of Big 12 titles could be in jeopardy. With only three games left, Kansas needs the Longhorns to falter at least once to give them any hope of winning the conference.

In the middle of the pack, things are still a bit murky. Kansas State made a strong move by beating Nebraska on the road, and now sits all alone in fifth place. Just a game behind fourth-place Missouri, the Wildcats still have a shot at a tournament bye, and get a crack at the Tigers on Saturday afternoon. At 6-7, Nebraska, Baylor, and Colorado are locked in a three-way tie for sixth and are also all jostling for position as the Big 12 looks to earn a sixth bid for the NCAA tournament. While none of the schools have exceptional profiles, a run during the final three league games could certainly punch the NCAA ticket for one of them.

At the bottom of the standings, Iowa State’s lopsided loss in Austin has assured that the Cyclones will be the conference’s No. 12 seed in Kansas City. Even if Iowa State were to win out, they could only tie with a team that had already beaten them. With a lost tiebreaker as the team’s best-case scenario, Fred Hoiberg and the ‘Clones can already make plans to be at the Sprint Center at 2 P.M. on March 9th.

This weekend’s games

Missouri at Kansas State; Saturday, 11:00 A.M. CT (ESPN)
Saturday’s biggest game in the Big 12 serves as a nice appetizer for a great day of college basketball across the country. While the rest of the nation will have its marquee matchups later in the day, this A.M. battle marks one of Kansas State’s final two attempts to notch a big win heading into Selection Sunday. K-State has been on a tear in recent weeks, winning five of six, with the lone loss coming by mere milliseconds to Colorado in Boulder.

Not to be outdone, Missouri has put together their own four-game winning streak as they head down the stretch. The Tigers have had major issues on the road, however. Mizzou finally won their first conference road game in six tries by beating Iowa State in Ames last Saturday. Unfortunately for Coach Mike Anderson and the Tigers, Bramlage Coliseum has become a much tougher venue to win in than Hilton Coliseum, and the Wildcats are far better than the Cyclones.

In addition to the NCAA implications, this one is also big in terms of Big 12 Tournament seeding. If Missouri can knock off K-State, the Tigers will have clinched at least a tie for the last of the league’s four first-round byes. By virtue of sweeping the Wildcats and moving two games ahead of them in the standings with two games to play, Missouri would also assure that K-State could only finish fourth if a multi-team tie cropped up at the end of the season. If K-State defends home court, however, it forces the teams into a tie for fourth heading into the final week.

We hope you took notes. There will be an exam on Monday.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma State; Saturday, 12:30 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)
Two teams with very little to play for will square off in Stillwater on Saturday afternoon. For Texas Tech, the chance to earn another road win is a welcome one. The Red Raiders shocked the league by beating Baylor in Waco last Saturday, but were edged out by Colorado in Lubbock on Wednesday night.

Senior John Roberson was particularly disgusted by the lack of fan support at United Spirit Arena. “I haven’t complained in four years, but the crowd was awful. We didn’t have anybody here cheering us,” Roberson said. “That’s ridiculous for this to be a winnable game and for us to be playing another Big 12 school and for nobody to show up.”

While there’s not much at stake in this one, it’s bound to be an exciting game. The two teams went to overtime in Lubbock four weeks ago, while both teams will be desperate for a win just to stop the bleeding. The Cowboys have lost four straight, while Tech’s win over Baylor was their lone victory in six February games.

Nebraska at Iowa State; Saturday, 12:45 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)
The Cornhuskers made a big move on the bubble by knocking off Texas last Saturday, and then immediately took two steps back by failing to execute in the final minutes against K-State on Wednesday night. Nebraska’s computer numbers are ugly, but the strength of that win over Texas and another over Texas A&M has Doc Sadler’s team still on the cusp of their first NCAA bid in 13 years. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has them as one of the “Next Four Out” of his February 25th projections, so the Huskers essentially need to win out in the regular season to stay in the discussion. Nebraska is just 1-5 on the road so far in conference play, with the lone win coming in Norman last Wednesday. The Huskers must overcome those road woes to claim this winnable game at Hilton Coliseum.

Texas at Colorado; Saturday, 3:00 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)
A full preview of the Texas/Colorado game will be available on Saturday morning.

Kansas at Oklahoma; Saturday, 3:00 P.M. CT (ESPN)
There’s not much to say about this one. Kansas has been playing incredible basketball as of late, while Oklahoma has exceeded expectations by winning four conference games this year. While Roberson and Tech have their own fan issues at United Spirit Arena, the Lloyd Noble Center has been just as bad this year. Even with the big draw of Kansas, expect a mostly-empty, mostly-blue arena on Saturday afternoon as the Jayhawks easily take care of business and stay in the hunt for another Big 12 title.

Texas A&M at Baylor; Saturday, 8:00 P.M. CT (ESPNU)
The Battle on the Brazos has become quite the basketball rivalry in recent years. From the five-overtime thriller to the near-brawl in Waco in 2009, tensions are always high when the Aggies and Bears meet on the hardwood. Like Nebraska, Baylor is located in the “Next Four Out” category of Lunardi’s latest Bracketology. So far, Baylor’s résumé consists of a lot of non-conference fluff and a road win over A&M. While the Bears can add another quality win by beating the Aggies once more in Waco, they’ll still need some help down the stretch to get in. Lose this one, and the Bear Pit can start thinking about how to intimidate NIT opponents.

With just four games left in the regular season, Texas was in dire need a bounce-back win after suffering their first conference loss of the season on Saturday. Fortunately for Rick Barnes and the Longhorns, the schedule-makers helped out in that department. Texas had the good fortune of hosting the Iowa State Cyclones, Big 12 cellar dwellers, and took care of business in fashion. The Longhorns turned in another brilliant defensive performance and stifled the short-handed Cyclones, coasting to a 76-53 win.

While fans shouldn’t get too excited about thumping the worst team in the conference, the win allowed the team a chance to iron out some wrinkles that had popped up in Lincoln. Jordan Hamilton and Tristan Thompson took advantage of favorable matchups to have great games, while Dogus Balbay played out of his mind for 23 minutes. The Longhorns certainly have much bigger challenges waiting in the next three games, but it’s reassuring to see that the team was able to rebound quickly from one of their most disappointing performances of the season.

What looked good

Hamilton was the Texas player who most needed a shot in the arm, and he found it in a big way on Tuesday night. After shooting just 24% from the field in the team’s previous two games, Hamilton lit up the scoreboard against the Cyclones. He made 50% of his attempts, including 3-of-4 from behind the arc. His two threes in the second half helped fuel a Texas run that extended the team’s lead from just nine at half to more than 20 in a matter of minutes. In the first half, Hamilton even added the rare four-point play after being fouled by Melvin Ejim on a made three.

Thompson also had a breakout night against a smaller Iowa State frontcourt that was without its big defensive presence, 6’11” Jamie Vanderbeken. Tristan posted a double-double with 17 points and 14 rebounds, while piling up the fouls on the Cyclone bigs. Calvin Godfrey fouled out of the game, while Ejim and Jordan Railey finished with four personals each. Most teams will provide a much stiffer test for Thompson in the post, but it’s a good sign that the team identified the mismatches and mercilessly exploited them.

Gary Johnson also had a double-double against Iowa State, scoring 14 points to go with his 12 rebounds. Perhaps most importantly, Johnson finally took the opportunity to step out and knock down a three-pointer in this game.

As we mentioned last month, Gary is one of the nation’s best shooters when it comes to shooting in the “danger zone,” located from 17-feet out to the three-point arc. It’s the furthest shot on the court that isn’t worth an extra point, so the risk is much greater than the reward. When we ran the numbers back on January 15th, Johnson was scoring 1.2 points per shot in that “danger zone.” It seems a natural progression for the senior to take a few steps back and earn an extra point for the team.

Another senior that chipped in with a quality outing was Dogus Balbay, who kept the Longhorn machine churning in the second half with hustle play all over the court. With the Cyclones sagging off of him in ways not seen since the 2009-10 season, Balbay attacked the paint off the dribble and contributed six points and two assists. More importantly, his active hands on defense deflected numerous passes out of bounds to disrupt the Cyclones, while he added a steal and a pair of impressive blocks late in the game.

As far as the numbers go, the Longhorn performance was absolutely dominant. Texas scored just 11 points in the final 11 minutes of the game, yet still finished with an impressive 23-point victory. The defense, meanwhile, squashed any hopes of an upset by holding the Cyclones scoreless for a combined 7:39 to open and close out the first half.

In terms of efficiency, the Longhorns put up the second-best outing against Iowa State all season. They held the Cyclones to just 0.767 points per possession, thanks largely in part to excellent perimeter defense. Although Iowa State had some open long-range looks early, they missed many of them, and Texas quickly adjusted to lock down the arc. The Cyclones, who were one of the nation’s top fifty teams from long range, managed to make just 25% of their three-point attempts against Texas.

Add in the fact that the Longhorns had a brief stretch in the first half where they were unable to stop Iowa State’s dribble-drive, and those stifling defensive numbers are even more impressive. After grabbing a 4-0 lead out of the gate, Texas allowed the Cyclones to score 13 points in just seven possessions, thanks to four layups and a dunk. Once the Longhorns made the effort to shut down the dribble penetration, Iowa State was limited to mostly contested jumpers. Excluding that four-minute stretch of porous defense, Texas held the Cyclones to an unbelievable 0.656 points per possession.

What needed work

In all honesty, there was very little to nitpick in Tuesday night’s game. The Longhorns had that four-minute stretch of weak defense which we just addressed, but otherwise they appeared impenetrable.

From the free-throw line, the team actually started 10-for-13 before finishing just 3-for-8 down the stretch. That gave the Longhorns a 61.9% success rate at the line, which has unfortunately become par for the course at this point. As usual, Thompson was the main offender, making just one of his six attempts.

Jai Lucas had a disappointing 1-of-7 night from the field, finally breaking through late in the game with a pull-up jumper a few feet inside the arc. Fortunately, the Iowa State game gave Jai a harmless opportunity to work on his shot at game speed. Unfortunately, the extra time didn’t seem to make much of a difference.

It’s essentially a given that Lucas will have to chew up some minutes down the stretch to give the starters some rest. Hopefully, he will be more of a floor manager and less of a shooter in games that are a little more tightly contested. Limiting his playing time to stints in which other scorers are on the floor should help to limit the damage during those stretches.

Up next: at Colorado (16-11 overall, 5-7 Big 12); Saturday, 3 P.M. CT

With just four games left in the regular season, the Texas Longhorns have the chance to be the first team not named Kansas to win an outright Big 12 title in the last seven years. Before losing to Nebraska on Saturday, that outcome seemed all but guaranteed for Texas. But with that pesky loss now on their record, the Longhorns have almost no margin for error down the stretch. Kansas has only one game left that seems like a possible loss, coming on the final day of the season when they travel to Columbia to take on Mizzou.

Texas, meanwhile, has a handful of tough games left on its plate. Road trips to Colorado and Baylor are certainly not guaranteed wins, and the Longhorns still have to host a Kansas State team that upset the Jayhawks last Monday. Tonight’s tussle with Iowa State is the only “easy” game left for Texas during these last two weeks, so they absolutely have to take care of business in this one.

By the numbers

Offensively, Iowa State ranks in the top third of Division I basketball, but it’s practically all thanks to their three-point shooting. The Cyclones are ranked 48th nationally with a 37.6% mark behind the arc, and they take nearly 38% of their shots from that distance.

Iowa State hardly ever gets to the line, and in fact the Cyclones have a team free-throw rate that is third-worst in the entire country. This is a product of their reliance on jump shots, particularly three-pointers. The low FTR for Iowa State is a welcome sight for the Longhorns, who suffered on Saturday when Gary Johnson had to sit with early foul problems. Against the Cyclones, very few Texas players should be in foul trouble tonight.

The Longhorns will also benefit from the lack of offensive rebounding by Iowa State. The Cyclones grab just 29.7% of their misses, and have struggled even more in conference play, where they have an offensive rebounding mark of just 26.4%. On Saturday, Texas allowed the Cornhuskers to have a field day on the offensive glass, despite the fact that Nebraska also had an offensive rebounding mark below 30% in Big 12 play. The Longhorns simply cannot fail to exploit this advantage in a second-straight game.

Although Iowa State has won just one game in conference play, they have competed in almost every contest. They have six conference losses by six points or less, and have been defeated twice in overtime. While Texas is certainly more talented than the Cyclones, don’t be surprised if Iowa State makes this a much closer game than most are expecting.

Meet the Cyclones

Fatigue is likely a big reason why the Cyclones have fallen short so many times this season. Iowa State has perhaps the thinnest rotation that Texas has faced all year, with only seven men seeing significant playing time. More importantly, the starting five accounts for 81% of the team’s minutes. If the bigger, more physical Longhorns manage to get the Iowa State starters into foul trouble, there isn’t much more in the cupboard for first-year coach Fred Hoiberg.

The Cyclones are led by Diante Garrett, a combo guard who can carry the team with his scoring when he isn’t dishing out assists. Garrett is really the only player on the Iowa State roster who can repeatedly break down opponents off the dribble, which allows him to both get to the rack and create openings for his teammates when defenses react.

Garrett is averaging more than six assists per game, best in the Big 12 by a wide margin. His 17.3 points per game is fifth-best in the league, but his eye-popping numbers are overshadowed by Iowa State’s poor record.

Garrett is joined in the backcourt by sharpshooter Scott Christopherson. The junior from Wisconsin has hit more than 45% of his three-point attempts, a mark that is tops in the Big 12 and 23rd-best in D-I basketball. Christopherson has had four different games in which he’s made at least five three-pointers — including two games in which he sank seven triples — and has made at least one three in every game he’s played this year.

Another scorer in the backcourt is senior Jake Anderson, who arrived in Ames after three years as a starter at Northern Illinois, where he played for former Colorado coach Ricardo Patton. Anderson is actually the team’s best rebounder despite being just 6’2″, as he averages 7.5 boards per game. He can make aggressive moves off the dribble and is smart enough to identify mismatches when he has smaller guards isolated on defense near the paint.

The only other guard to play significant minutes for Coach Hoiberg is Bubu Palo, a sixth man who brings energy off the bench. Palo redshirted his freshman season after being recruited to Ames as a walk-on, and is now providing nearly 15 minutes per game. He can take over ballhandling duties when Garrett needs a breather, as Palo was the starting point guard for his high school team, which won the Iowa state championship in 2009. You may have even heard of one of Palo’s Ames High teammates, a kid by the name of Harrison Barnes.

In the frontcourt, the Cyclones counter Texas’ Toronto connection with their own Canadian product, Melvin Ejim. At 6’6″, the freshman has already shown the ability to defend bigger, more physical players. Unfortunately, he’s also revealed a tendency to get beat by more athletic forwards who can take him off the dribble, like Tech’s Mike Singletary and the Morris twins at Kansas.

Even with that knock against him, Ejim is a solid defender and rebounder, and can score easily inside or with his smooth mid-range jumper. Although he doesn’t shoot it as often as his teammates, Ejim has even shown the ability to occasionally knock down the three.

Also in the frontcourt is Jamie Vanderbeken, an excellent three-point shooter who can pull opposing big men out of the paint with his long-range threat. His ability to score from the perimeter opens up the driving lanes for Garrett and Anderson, and the guards often find Vanderbeken wide open behind the arc when defenses collapse on them in the paint.

Thanks to his prediliction for playing on the perimeter, Vanderbeken’s offensive rebounding numbers are unimpressive for a 6’11” guy. On defense, though, he plays like a big man. His 1.8 blocks per game are 3rd in the Big 12, and he’s third on the team in defensive rebounding.

Off the bench, Iowa State has two frontcourt options in Calvin Godfrey and Jordan Railey. While Godfrey plays nearly twice as many minutes as Railey, the Cyclones will likely call on both of them for extra minutes against a bigger Texas team tonight. Both forwards have had major issues with foul trouble so far this year, so they will likely have a tough time trying to contain the Longhorn frontcourt in this one.

Keys to the game

The quickest way for Texas to put away the Cyclones tonight is to lock down the perimeter. Besides Garrett, Iowa State lacks any true creators, so the Longhorns must make sure that the Cyclone sharpshooters aren’t getting open looks from behind the arc. Garrett simply cannot beat Texas on his own, and as long as his outlets are being covered, he also won’t be able to kill the Horns with well-timed kick-outs for three.

The Longhorns also need to control the defensive glass tonight. They did a terrible job of this on Saturday, and it ultimately cost them the game in Lincoln. With the Cyclones guaranteed to take a lot of long-range jumpers tonight, Texas cannot afford to let the long caroms get away from them. The Longhorns have to grab those missed shots and limit the number of chances Iowa State has to do damage from three-point range.

Finally, Texas must abuse Iowa State inside. Kansas absolutely decimated the smaller Cyclone lineup behind great performances by the Morris twins, who averaged a combined 40 points and 23 rebounds in their two games against Iowa State. If Tristan Thompson and Gary Johnson can get going early against the Cyclones, the Longhorns will rack up the points and also hang some fouls on a thin ISU frontcourt.

TEAM W L FINAL FOUR GAMES Texas 11 1 vs. ISU (2/22), at CU (2/26), vs. KSU (2/28), at BU (3/5) Kansas 10 2 vs. OSU (2/21), at OU (2/26), vs. A&M (3/2), at Mizzou (3/5) Texas A&M 8 4 vs. OU (2/23), at BU (2/26), at KU (3/2), vs. TTU (3/5) Missouri 7 5 vs. BU (2/23), at KSU (2/26), at Neb (3/1), vs. KU (3/5) Baylor 6 6 at Mizzou (2/23), vs. A&M (2/26), at OSU (3/1), vs. UT (3/5) Kansas State 6 6 at Neb (2/23), vs. Mizzou (2/26), at UT (2/28), vs. ISU (3/5) Nebraska 6 6 vs. KSU (2/23), at ISU (2/26), vs. Mizzou (3/1), at CU (3/5) Colorado 5 7 at TTU (2/23), vs. UT (2/26), at ISU (3/2), vs. Neb (3/5) Oklahoma 4 8 at A&M (2/23), vs. KU (2/26), at TTU (3/2), vs. OSU (3/5) Oklahoma State 4 8 at KU (2/21), vs. TTU (2/26), vs. BU (3/1), at OU (3/5) Texas Tech 4 8 vs. CU (2/23), at OSU (2/26), vs. OU (3/2), at A&M (3/5) Iowa State 1 11 at UT (2/22), vs. Neb (2/26), vs. CU (3/2), at KSU (3/5)

The big picture

While the top two teams in the Big 12 stumbled last week, a quartet of other schools continued their winning ways to charge into consideration for the league’s final two tournament byes. Texas A&M knocked off Iowa State and Oklahoma State to keep their hold on third place, while Missouri handled Tech at home and followed it up by picking up their first conference road win of the year in Ames. Baylor’s inexplicable loss to Texas Tech allowed surging Nebraska and Kansas State to force a three-way tie for fifth, just one game out of the coveted top four.

With only four games left in the regular season, there’s still a lot to be sorted out. Kansas and Texas are still battling it out for the league crown, while the muddled bunch of Mizzou, Baylor, Nebraska, and K-State will start to sort things out with head-to-head games on Wednesday.

Of course, the most important thing to play for is a spot in the NCAA tournament. In today’s Bracketology, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has the Big 12 with 5 bids. Baylor has just missed the cut as one of the “Last Four Out,” while Nebraska is not far behind as one of the “Next Four Out.” Both teams have a few chances to pick up statement wins coming down the stretch. If not, the league many once believed to be incredibly deep may turn out to be nothing more than a little wheat and a whole lot of chaff.

Mid-week games

Oklahoma State at Kansas; Monday, 8:00 P.M. CT (ESPN)
Oklahoma State comes into this one with little left to play for. A foul in the backcourt gave Texas A&M the winning free throw attempts in the waning seconds on Saturday night in Stillwater, tagging the Cowboys with their third straight conference loss. All three losses have come following the suspension of Darrell Williams, who had posted an 18-point, 12-rebound game in his last outing before rape allegations were levied against him.

Kansas has its own suspension to deal with in this one, but the much deeper Jayhawk squad should be just fine. Guard Tyshawn Taylor has been suspended indefinitely by Coach Bill Self, for undisclosed reasons. Taylor has been the subject of off-the-court issues since arriving in Lawrence, whether it be his fight with football players or his Facebook status expressing a desire to transfer. The timing of this latest incident couldn’t be worse for the junior, who was averaging four assists and more than 11 points in his last four games.

Kansas suffered its only conference loss last season against Oklahoma State in Stillwater, but things should be very different tonight. Vegas has pegged the Jayhawks as 18 point favorites.

Iowa State at Texas; Tuesday, 7:00 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)
A full preview of the Iowa State/Texas game will be available on Tuesday.

Oklahoma at Texas A&M; Wednesday, 6:30 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)
Oklahoma has seriously outperformed expectations this season, and has been very close to winning even more than the four conference games they have claimed so far. On Wednesday, Cade Davis missed tying the game by mere inches, as he stepped on the three-point line while knocking down a last-second basket. The blunder allowed Nebraska to escape with a one-point road victory. On Saturday, the Sooners were within five of K-State before an ill-timed technical foul by Carl Blair allowed the Wildcats to go on a 14-0 run and ice the game.

Meanwhile, Texas A&M has simply been winning the games it is supposed to win. During their four-game winning streak, the Aggies have defeated Colorado, Texas Tech, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State by a combined total of just 12 points. While none of the wins are headline-grabbers, they have allowed A&M to maintain a firm hold on third place in the conference. With this game and another home date versus Tech still on the schedule, things are setting up nicely for the Aggies to claim a bye in the Big 12 tournament.

Colorado at Texas Tech; Wednesday, 6:30 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)
Colorado missed a big chance to keep itself in the NCAA hunt when they were embarrassed on Saturday in Lawrence. At this point, even an upset of Texas on Saturday likely won’t save the post-season hopes of the Buffaloes, but they certainly will be out of the picture if they drop Wednesday night’s contest with Tech. SI’s Andy Glockner still has the Buffs alive in his latest Bubble Watch, but he believes that only a perfect 4-0 mark down the stretch will do the trick.

Baylor at Missouri; Wednesday, 8:00 P.M. CT (ESPN2)
One of the two intriguing match-ups on Wednesday night is between the Bears and Tigers, although Baylor certainly took some of the shine off this game by losing at home to Tech on Saturday. The Tigers are 16-0 at Mizzou Arena so far this season, where the hometown crowd makes Mike Anderson’s pressure defense even more intimidating. Baylor desperately needs to stop the bleeding to keep their NCAA hopes alive, but stealing a road win in Columbia will be a tough order.

Kansas State at Nebraska; Wednesday, 8:00 P.M. CT (ESPNU)
Two weeks ago, this game seemed all but meaningless. But after the Wildcats and Huskers knocked off Kansas and Texas last week, both teams are in the mix for a conference tournament bye and even an NCAA bid. K-State handled Nebraska easily in Manhattan at the beginning of the month, logging a 69-53 win.

Lincoln is a tough place to win, though, as the Longhorns discovered on Saturday. The Huskers are 16-1 at the Devaney Center this season, with the only loss coming to KU in a game where the Jayhawks sank 13 three-pointers. The Red Zone will be fired up and looking for revenge on Wednesday night.