The Longhorns are up against the proverbial wall as they open Big 12 tournament play tonight. Texas is squarely on the bubble in nearly every bracket projection you can find, so a loss to Iowa State in tonight’s game will almost certainly end any hopes of an NCAA bid. A victory would give Texas four wins against the RPI Top 50, a key metric used by the Selection Committee, and would likely earn them a shot at another quality win against Missouri in the semifinals tomorrow.

The Cyclones and Longhorns split their pair of meetings this season, with each team defending home court. Now that the two teams are squaring off on a neutral floor, it’s apparent just how evenly matched they are. Ken Pomeroy gives Texas a 51% chance to come up with the big win tonight, predicting just a one-point margin of victory.

Meet the Cyclones

For a full look at the Iowa State roster and the team’s style of play, check out LRT’s preview from the first game between these two teams.

The Wangmene effect

The biggest difference in tonight’s third round of ISU/Texas is the sudden absence of big man Alexis Wangmene. While he only averaged 15 minutes in the two games against Iowa State this year, Wangmene’s wrist injury means that the Longhorns now have an even thinner frontcourt rotation, and even less size.

For the Longhorns, that means Rick Barnes will have to get creative with the lineup. The easiest solution would seem to be going with a smaller starting five and leaving Clint Chapman as the sole post presence. This would also get Sheldon McClellan into the starting lineup without having to take out Julien Lewis. McClellan brings extra offense to the table and can really get the offense moving when he’s aggressive. Lewis, meanwhile, provides quality defense on the perimeter and is usually good for a few “take and makes” each game.

The alternative would be to slide Jonathan Holmes right into Wangmene’s spot and keep size on the frontline. The danger in this approach is that Chapman has a tendency to get in foul trouble, and the only other frontcourt player left is undersized Jaylen Bond. Iowa State also makes this approach difficult, because the typical strategy to protect your bigs from foul trouble is a zone defense. The Cyclones are absolutely deadly from long range, so Texas would be taking a monumental risk by using a zone.

Fortunately, a four-out, one-in look matches up very well with Iowa State. It brings more athleticism and quickness to the court, which is key in trying to keep the quick Cyclone players from penetrating with the bounce. In addition, Chapman has actually been very successful against Iowa State this season, as the Longhorns made a concerted effort to get him touches right away in both games. As long as the big man can avoid foul trouble, the Longhorns might be able to survive against Iowa State without Wangmene.

Keys to the game

1) Keep Chapman on the floor– With that being said, it’s fairly obvious that the biggest concern for Texas is keeping Chapman on the court. Royce White was saddled with early foul trouble when the teams played in Ames, but posted a monster 15/15 double-double when he played 35 minutes in Austin. Chapman will be key to stopping the Iowa State superstar, and will also be needed to score easy points inside against an undersized Cyclone squad.

2) Limit the damage from deep– If you want to quickly find the biggest difference between the two Iowa State/Texas games, look no further than the three-point percentages. Iowa State was 10-of-21 in their win over Texas — including a ridiculous 9-of-12 in the first half — and just 5-of-21 in their loss. The Cyclone roster is filled with players who are deadly from long range, so the Longhorns must be vigilant on the perimeter and make sure those long looks are challenged.

3) Stop White in transition– On multiple occasions in both games, Royce White simply brought the ball all the way up the court and was halfway down the lane before a Texas defender challenged him. The Longhorns must stop the ball and cannot allow the big man to score his points so easily. In addition to giving Iowa State easy looks, that poor defense also led to unnecessary fouls when the defense reacted so late. With an even thinner frontcourt this time around, Texas simply cannot afford to let White drive the lane with impunity.

4) Be aggressive with the ball– As Texas fans know all too well, the Longhorn offense has a terrible tendency to go stagnant. When opponents double through ball screens, the Longhorn guards typically retreat instead of attacking. When defenders fight through staggered baseline screens set for the Texas shooters, the guards usually just dribble the air out of the ball at the top of the key.

The Longhorns have athletic guys who can put the ball on the floor and create looks, so they need to use those skills tonight. McClellan, Lewis, J’Covan Brown, and Myck Kabongo must attack with the dribble and get things moving. Iowa State’s defense has proven to be susceptible to dribble penetration, so Texas has to exploit that.

The pressure is now officially on in Bubble Nation, as we are less than 82 hours from finding out which teams will make the NCAA field and which can start making plans for the NIT. With bubblers across the country taking the court in their conference tournaments, today could be the most important day of the season for many teams. For Texas, a must-win battle with Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship quarterfinals later tonight. A win there might be enough for the Longhorns to make the field, but losses by other bubble contenders can certainly help their case.

Last night, Seton Hall took one of those losses, falling to Louisville in the second round of the Big East tourney. As a result, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi slid the Pirates out of the bracket and moved the Horns into the final at-large slot in his late-night update. Seton Hall now must wait until Selection Sunday to find out their fate, but with a 4-8 record against the RPI Top 50 and an additional three wins against those slotted 51st through 100th, the Pirates seem to have a solid résumé, especially compared to other bubblers.

Even though the Pirates are done with Championship Week, there will still be many Longhorn fans with their eyes glued to the scoreboard. Here’s a quick rundown of the games most important to Texas fans:

Illinois vs. Iowa (10:30 A.M. CT, BTN)
The Illini finished the season with 11 losses in their last 13 games and are essentially in a bubble coma at this point. Iowa’s profile is certainly not worth of an at-large look, either. But, both of these teams have pulled off some victories against the top teams in the Big 10, and either one could make a run in Indianapolis this weekend. While neither Illinois or Iowa should be in the at-large picture at this point, they both have the pieces to possibly put together a troubling bid-thief campaign.

N.C. State vs. Boston College (1 P.M. CT, ESPNU)
The Wolfpack is still on the wrong side of the bubble at this point, with an ugly 0-8 record against the RPI Top 50 counting heavily against them. A win against Boston College does nothing to help their résumé, but does move the Pack into a quarterfinal match-up with Virginia. N.C. State might need three wins in Atlanta to be able to make the field, so Mark Gottfried and Co. need to take care of business against the ACC’s worst team this afternoon.

Washington vs. Oregon State (2 P.M. CT, FSN)
At this point, the Pac-12’s bubble picture is best described as a hot mess. As has been pointed out numerous times, most often by SI’s Andy Glockner, the league has a profile that is much more befitting a mid-major conference. The Pac-12 had just two victories in non-conference games against the RPI Top 50, with the best win coming against a Colorado State team that is on the bubble itself. (The other was Oregon State over Texas, and the Longhorns are right on the Top 50 cutline at the moment.) Ken Pomeroy ranks the Pac-12 as the ninth-best conference, behind the likes of the MWC, A-10, and MVC. With those kind of numbers, is the league really worth three bids, or even two? The Huskies have one extra chip in their stack thanks to the regular-season title, but at this point, all that guarantees them is a bid to the NIT. A loss to Oregon State this afternoon would be absolutely crippling for UW.

Arizona vs. UCLA (4:30 P.M. CT, FSN)
Like Washington, Arizona has a résumé that is incredibly thin. Unfortunately, the Pac-12 provides little in the way of quality win opportunities, instead posing as a minefield that can blow up at-large chances for the league’s top teams. That is especially true for the Wildcats, who will be without the services of point guard Josiah Turner after he was suspended indefinitely on Wednesday. UCLA could easily knock off Arizona in this one, which would essentially put the kibosh on any NCAA hopes in Tucson.

Northwestern vs. Minnesota (4:30 P.M. CT, ESPN2)
If Texas fans thought that they Longhorns had a heartbreaking season, they would hate to be fans of the Wildcats. Northwestern, which has famously never made the NCAA tournament, posted a brutal 1-10 record against the RPI Top 50 during the regular season. Two of those losses came in overtime to Michigan, while another three of their Top 50 losses were by a combined nine points. Like many of the teams in action today, Northwestern won’t be punching a ticket with a win over Minnesota, but simply cannot afford a loss. If the Wildcats can get past the Golden Gophers, a third crack at Michigan would come in tomorrow’s quarterfinals.

Mississippi State vs. Georgia (9 P.M. CT, ESPN Full Court/ESPN3.com)
Mississippi State went on a late season slide, losing five straight in late February before closing out the year with a pair of wins to finish at .500 in SEC play. The Bulldogs have an 8-4 record against the RPI Top 100, but more than half of those wins have come against teams that fall in the 51-100 range. A loss to Georgia might not knock Mississippi State out of the NCAAs, but it would certainly make for a very nervous Selection Sunday in Starkville.

Colorado State vs. TCU (4:30 P.M. CT, The Mtn)
Fort Collins proved to be the toughest place to play in the Mountain West this year, as the Rams defended their home court against the league’s big three: UNLV, New Mexico, and San Diego State. Unfortunately, the MWC tournament doesn’t take place down the road from the New Belgium Brewing Co., so the Rams could be vulnerable to an ugly upset against TCU in Las Vegas. It would appear that Colorado State is safely in the field at this point, but a loss to the Horned Frogs could shove the Rams right back into the bubble discussion.

Oregon vs. Colorado (10:30 P.M. CT, FSN)
Like Arizona and Washington, Oregon is desperately seeking a second or third NCAA bid for the Pac-12. Unlike the Wildcats and Huskies, however, the Ducks are currently on the wrong side of the bubble in most tournament projections. Oregon has to take care of business against the Buffaloes, who they split the season series with. A loss would almost certainly guarantee a trip to the NIT.

Miami vs. Georgia Tech (8 P.M. CT, ESPNU)
You may be noticing a pattern at this point, so perhaps you’ll be able to guess the next sentence before you read it. Miami can’t seal a bid with a win over Georgia Tech tonight, but they can certainly cripple their NCAA hopes with a loss. The Yellow Jackets are currently 188th in the RPI and would provide absolutely no boost to the Hurricane résumé, but would tarnish it with an ACC tourney upset. Miami is currently 2-7 against the RPI Top 50, with wins coming at Duke and at home against Florida State. A victory over Georgia Tech would give the ‘Canes a chance for a second win over the Seminoles in tomorrow’s quarterfinals.

South Florida vs. Notre Dame (8 P.M. CT, ESPN)
The Bulls got past Villanova in a must-win game last night, and now can solidify their NCAA profile with a win over Notre Dame tonight. South Florida is only 1-9 against the RPI Top 50, but is 6-9 against the Top 100. In a weak bubble year, perhaps getting fat on wins against the lower half of the Top 100 will be enough for the Bulls to get into the NCAAs. If they don’t want to test that theory, they will have to knock off Notre Dame tonight.

Central Florida vs. UAB (9:00 P.M. CT, CBS College Sports)
The Golden Knights are on the periphery of the bubble discussion, but could push their way back into consideration with a good run in the C-USA tournament. With only three RPI Top 100 wins under their belt, UCF needs to take care of the Blazers tonight and hope for a big win over Memphis in the semis.

Wyoming vs. UNLV (10:30 P.M. CT, The Mtn)
While it’s not likely that the Mountain West earns five bids to the NCAAs this year, the Cowboys could still make a case with some quality wins in the MWC tourney. The 18-10 record against D-I opponents isn’t stellar, but it does include two wins against the RPI Top 25, with UNLV providing an opportunity for a third tonight. Unfortunately, the MWC tournament is played on UNLV’s home court, where the Cowboys just lost to the Rebels on Saturday.

In a busy Saturday packed full of games with huge NCAA implications, the Texas Longhorns tackle their toughest test of the season. Situated squarely on the bubble, the young Horns will be facing a top-five Kansas team on Senior Night, in front of a crowd thirsty for revenge after Texas snapped their 69-game home winning streak last January. If those subplots weren’t enough to create an electric atmosphere in Lawrence tonight, the Jayhawks are also still playing for the right to be bracketed into the geographically-favorable St. Louis regional of the NCAA tournament.

For the Longhorns, the one positive is that there is practically no one outside of the team and staff that is giving them much of a chance to win tonight. With other bubble teams dropping games this afternoon against much weaker competition than Kansas, a loss tonight would not be crippling for Texas. On the other hand, a victory that shocks the nation would almost certainly punch a ticket to the NCAAs for the Horns.

Meet the Jayhawks

For an in-depth look at the Kansas roster and style of play, check out LRT’s preview from the first game between these two teams.

The first meeting

The Longhorns fell behind early when they hosted Kansas on January 21st, managing just nine points in the game’s first 12 minutes. The Jayhawks carried a 12-point lead to the locker room, powered by Tyshawn Taylor’s 12-point, four-assist first half. On the other side of the ball, J’Covan Brown struggled for Texas, going just 1-for-8 from the field in the first half.

After the break, Kansas built their lead back out to 15 points on a pair of free throws and a three-pointer from Taylor, but the Longhorn defense dug in their heels after that. Texas held Kansas to just 33% shooting from the field in the second half and slowly chipped away at the lead, finally taking an advantage of their own when Clint Chapman sank two free throws with 5:39 to play.

The Longhorns extended the lead to four points on a Brown triple with 3:21 to go, but they could not manage another basket the rest of the way. Kansas, meanwhile, executed down the stretch, going ahead for good on a Jeff Withey three-point play with 37 seconds left. Brown had two chances to tie the game in the final minute, missing a leaner with 15 seconds left and a three-pointer with less than two seconds to go.

Kansas escaped Austin with a 69-66 win and moved to 7-0 in conference play, while the Longhorns missed one of many opportunities to log a signature victory.

Since then…

The Jayhawks have been practically unstoppable en route to their eighth-consecutive Big 12 crown, falling only in road games at Iowa State and Missouri. Junior big man Jeff Withey has been a big part of that success, as his offensive game has developed nicely in Big 12 play. Already known for his shot-blocking abilities, Withey has upped his scoring average to 11.4 points over his last 14 games. If not for two terrible performances against Missouri — he scored a combined two points and grabbed just five boards versus the Tigers — those numbers would be even more impressive.

Last weekend, Kansas was down 19 points at home to Missouri in what might have been the final installment of the Border War. In front of a frenzied home crowd, the Jayhawks stormed back to force overtime and knock off their hated rivals, locking up another league title as Thomas Robinson made a strong case for national Player of the Year honors. T-Rob posted a mammoth 28-point, 12-rebound line, while Taylor scored 24 points, including four big triples.

While the top two seeds in the Big 12 Championship have already been decided, Mizzou and Kansas are still battling for the right to play their second weekend of the NCAA tournament in St. Louis. Thanks to the pod system, both teams will get to play close to home in Omaha for the 2nd and 3rd rounds, but only one can land the coveted St. Louis regional. A potential rubber match between the two rivals in the conference tournament could be the deciding factor.

Keys to the game

1) Weather the storm – The Longhorns have dug themselves some big holes this season, and almost always rally back to make things interesting. In an environment like Allen Fieldhouse, that could be very difficult, especially for a young team like Texas. The closest thing to the Phog that these six freshmen have seen was the Dean Dome, and things got out of hand quickly in that blowout loss to UNC. If Texas wants to have any chance at an upset, they’ll have to avoid getting punched in the nose in the game’s opening minutes.

2) Draw fouls – The only weakness for Bill Self and the Jayhawks is a rather thin bench. If Texas can somehow get Taylor, Withey, or Robinson in foul trouble, there’s not anyone comparable on the Jayhawk bench that can fill those shoes. If Texas can get some of the key Kansas players on the bench while also manufacturing some points at the line, perhaps the Horns can stay within striking distance for crunch time.

3) Slow down Tyshawn Taylor – The mercurial junior has shown that he can be rattled and will often make questionable decisions in high-pressure situations. Unfortunately, he’s rarely shown those tendencies against the Longhorns. When Texas won in Allen Fieldhouse last January, the Horns were able to limit Taylor to just four points, but didn’t force him into any turnovers. In the two Kansas victories since then, Tyshawn has averaged 21 points, shot 60.9% from the field — including 62.5% behind the arc — and posted nine boards and nine assists. If the Longhorns fail to contain him again tonight, it will be nearly impossible to pull off the improbable road upset.

The Longhorns made it interesting, but still took care of business on Wednesday night. A 72-64 win over Oklahoma kept Texas in the hunt for the NCAAs, while numerous teams in the chase pack took damaging losses. Even with big wins from Colorado State (over UNLV) and South Florida (at Louisville), the Longhorns held their ground in Joe Lunardi’s “Last Four In.”

For the past few weeks, Burnt Orange Bubble Watch has compared the Horns to the other teams fighting for those final bids. This week, we turn our attention to the dangerous Bid Snatchers, those teams that come out of nowhere to win a conference tournament, steal an NCAA berth, and shrink the bubble.

Most often, those teams come from mid-major conferences, but they’ve been known to come from the Big Six, as well. In 2008, Georgia made an improbable run through a tornado-delayed SEC tournament and won the league’s auto-bid just hours before the NCAA bracket was revealed. By improbably winning their way into the tournament, the Bulldogs forced out a bubble team at the last minute.

With the Longhorns likely to be sweating the bubble all the way through the bracket’s unveiling on Selection Sunday, the team’s fans will want to keep a close eye on the tournaments below.

Ivy

We start our look at the Bid Snatchers with a league that doesn’t actually have a post-season tournament, and instead awards its auto-bid to the regular-season champ. The Harvard Crimson are the only squad in the Ivy race who stands to earn an at-large bid, so Texas fans need to hope that Tommy Amaker’s bunch can win the league crown. The Crimson are not a lock for the tournament, but do have neutral-site wins over Florida State and Central Florida on the résumé. While Harvard could be left out if they fail to win the auto-bid, there’s absolutely no way that the Ivy gets a second team into the dance if the Crimson win the league.

Harvard’s loss to Penn at home last Saturday night complicated the Ivy race, leaving the Crimson just a half-game ahead of the Quakers heading into the final weekend of the season. Last night, it took overtime to secure a win over Columbia, preserving Harvard’s narrow lead as they head to Cornell for their regular season finale tonight.

At this point, their worst-case scenario is a loss tonight followed by a pair of wins by Penn. If the Crimson can hold off Cornell in their season finale, they’ll be assured at least a one-game, neutral-site playoff against Penn. The Quakers close out their season with a game against Yale tonight and a road trip to Princeton on Tuesday.

Atlantic Sun (February 29th – March 3rd)

By now, everyone now knows Rick Byrd and Belmont, the small school in Nashville that stormed onto the national radar with a near-upset of Duke in the 2008 tournament. This season, the Bruins have a marginal profile and likely won’t make the field if they fall short in the A-Sun. Belmont’s RPI was 68th in the country heading into Monday’s action, and the Bruins have just one win against the RPI Top 50.

While the Bruins likely won’t make the field without the Atlantic Sun’s auto-bid, bubblers will still be pulling for Belmont to win the title, if only for simplicity’s sake. That title chase became much easier yesterday, as the conference’s 2-seed and tournament host, Mercer, lost in the tournament semifinals. The Bruins are now just one win away from the NCAAs, and need only to knock off Florida Gulf Coast in tonight’s Atlantic Sun title game.

Ohio Valley (February 29th – March 3rd)

Murray State is the big name in the OVC, and they nearly marched through the league (and their season) with an unblemished mark. The only loss for the Racers came at home against Tennessee State in early February, a fact that adds a delicious subtext to this afternoon’s league title game between the two teams.

With the tournament taking place in Nashville, this could end up being a bit of a road game for the Racers, but that might not make much of a difference. Last Thursday, Murray State marched into the Gentry Center and enacted their revenge on Tennessee State with an 80-62 drubbing. Pomeroy gives the Tigers a 22% chance to bounce back, pull off the upset today, and frustrate bubblers nationwide.

West Coast (February 29th – March 5th)

The bizarre West Coast Conference tournament setup has always been great for bubble teams. Bracketed in a stepladder fashion, the WCC protects its top teams with double byes, and even had to add a play-in game this season to accommodate the addition of BYU. As a result, St. Mary’s and Gonzaga have yet to play a game in the tournament, which moves into the semifinal round tonight.

The Gaels and Bulldogs are the league’s only locks at this point, although BYU is a team in the bubble discussion. If the Cougars won the auto-bid, it would not be nearly as disastrous as having the San Francisco Dons win the title, but it could still qualify as bid thievery. Bubble teams will definitely be pulling for Gonzaga to take care of BYU tonight and relegate the Cougars in the at-large discussion, but the most important thing is that St. Mary’s knock off San Fran in the first semifinal.

Missouri Valley (March 1st – 4th)

According to stats guru Ken Pomeroy, the Missouri Valley is the most dangerous early conference tournament for bubble teams. Heading into Arch Madness, there was a 17% chance that the league’s auto-bid would be won by someone other than Wichita State or Creighton, the two MVC teams that are considered a lock for at-large bids.

Northern Iowa and Missouri State were the two most likely teams to steal a bid in the MVC, according to Pomeroy, but both went down in yesterday’s quarterfinals. That leaves the top four seeds all intact for today’s semifinal action, with bubble teams pulling hard for the Shockers and Jays to take care of Illinois State and Evansville. Based on cumulative probabilities, Pomeroy gives roughly a 60% chance that bubble teams will see their dream MVC championship match-up of Wichita State and Creighton.

Colonial (March 2nd – 5th)

The CAA has been a mid-major darling in recent seasons, but the tripe at the bottom of the league standings this season has certainly hurt the league’s chances for multiple bids. At the top of the table, Drexel and VCU are the only likely candidates for at-large bids, but the Dragons appear to have the inside track to an at-large thanks to their regular-season crown. Neither team has a flashy profile, but the Rams at least own a win over South Florida, another squad in the at-large discussion. Fans of bubble teams would be most pleased by one of these two teams winning the league tournament, with the other making an early exit.

Atlantic 10 (March 6th – 11th)

The Battle on the Boardwalk looms large in the at-large drama this season, with Xavier, Dayton and St. Joe’s all needing to beef up their résumés down the stretch. UMass was even on the fringes of the bubble discussion earlier this week, but a tough loss at home to Temple may have ended that talk permanently. While the A-10 still has to wrap up its regular season this afternoon, bubblers will no doubt be rooting for Temple or Saint Louis to take home the post-season title, while also hoping that the Musketeers, Flyers, and Hawks all lose as early as possible.

Conference USA (March 7th – 10th)

The bubble situation in Conference USA is not nearly as simple as the leagues we’ve already covered, solely due to the fact that no team is a clear lock for the tournament. Both Memphis and Southern Miss have profiles that would seem to be good enough for NCAA inclusion, but bad losses down the stretch could screw that up.

The Golden Eagles already took a spill against both Houston and UTEP, then nearly ate an unforgivable defeat to SMU at home on Wednesday night. With a season-ending road trip to Marshall still on tap this afternoon, Southern Miss must avoid another bad loss that could overshadow their 10-4 mark against the RPI Top 100.

When the C-USA tournament kicks off next Wednesday, bubble teams will be squarely in the corner of the Memphis Tigers. A win by Southern Miss would not be too damaging, because like BYU, the Golden Eagles could already be an at-large inclusion. Central Florida, however, has shown it can knock off good teams and is more than capable of bid larceny. UCF is also a team that has already been in the bubble discussion, but Tuesday night’s lopsided loss to Memphis didn’t help their case. An early tournament loss by the Knights would be a boon to bubble teams everywhere.

Big West (March 8th – 10th)

Long Beach State earned a lot of press in early November with their upset win at Pittsburgh. The 49ers followed that up a month later with a neutral-site win over Xavier, but the Musketeers weren’t at full strength thanks to suspensions from the Crosstown Brawl. Since then, both the Musketeers and the Panthers have fallen off, so the value of those wins have likely diminished in the eyes of the Selection Committee. Unfortunately, those are the only RPI Top 100 wins for LBSU, which posted an 0-6 mark against the RPI Top 50.

The Big West is full of teams ranked 200+ in the RPI, putting them in the bottom tier that is used on the Selection Committee’s Nitty Gritty reports. A loss to one of those schools in the Big West Tournament could be fatal to the at-large hopes of the 49ers. Regardless, LBSU will still be considered for an at-large if they fail to secure the Big West’s auto-bid, so Horn fans should be pulling for Casper Ware and Co. next weekend.

Mountain West (March 8th – 10th)

The Mountain West has clearly been a three-bid league for the last few weeks, with Wyoming and Colorado State continually taking missteps in their pursuit of a fourth NCAA slot for the MWC. The Rams may have finally pushed themselves over the hump with a huge comeback win against UNLV on Wednesday night, but that loss at Boise State still sticks out on an otherwise impressive résumé.

Bubble teams will be happy with UNLV, New Mexico, or San Diego State winning the tournament title, but will also be hoping for an early loss by Colorado State. The Rams also could help out bubble teams by losing at Air Force today in the regular-season finale, an outcome that is very possible when you consider CSU’s 2-9 mark on the road.

Pac-12 (March 7th – 10th)

Like Conference USA, the Pac-12 is a tough league to figure out. The conference did itself no favors with an abysmal non-conference record, finishing 1-29 against teams in the RPI Top 50. That meant that as conference play began and teams starting knocking each other off, there were no good wins to be had. As a result, there are no true at-large locks in this league, and it’s hard to justify even three bids coming from the conference. As Andy Glockner pointed out in a recent Bubble Watch, likely regular-season champ Washington has the profile of a mid-major champ, not one of a Big Six title holder.

For bubble teams, that presents an interesting situation. If you took the names off of the profiles and did a blind comparison, it wouldn’t be a stretch to give the Pac-12 only one bid. We’d personally fall on the side arguing for two bids, but it’s insane that you could conceivably make a case for a major conference to earn only an auto-bid. However, with a weak bubble and the cachet that a power conference name provides, it’s probably much more likely that we see three teams in the field on Selection Sunday.

At-large contenders are hoping for early tournament slip-ups by Arizona, Oregon, and Colorado, the three bland, average teams that could still somehow receive a third bid from the Pac-12. (It’s worth noting that we originally had “earn” in that last sentence, but had to edit it to “receive.”) The primary focus for fans of bubble teams, however, is a Pac-12 post-season title for Cal, although a win by Washington wouldn’t be disastrous.

The others

Bid thieves can certainly come from other conferences, as proven by the 2008 Georgia team mentioned earlier. With the depth of the top leagues, however, the odds of that happening are very slim. With the Big East, Big 10, and Big 12 currently projected by Joe Lunardi to put 23 teams in the tournament, it’s tough to see a team outside of that group winning one of those league’s tourneys.

What bubble fans will be watching for in those tournaments is how fellow bubblers are faring. For Texas, that means rooting for Northwestern to get bounced early in the Big 10, or to see Miami lose quickly in the ACC tournament. The Longhorns will have to take care of their own business, too, as the opportunity for a big win will present itself in the form or Baylor or Iowa State in the Big 12 quarterfinals next Thursday.

The NCAA hopes of the Texas Longhorns survived an incredibly close call in Lubbock on Saturday afternoon, as Rick Barnes and Co. escaped the High Plains with a 71-67 overtime victory over Texas Tech. The Longhorns coughed up an 11-point halftime lead and even found themselves down by as many as six in overtime, yet managed to avoid a crippling loss that would have practically guaranteed Texas would miss the NCAA tournament.

Instead, the Longhorns find themselves still in the “Last Four In” of Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracketology update, with all four of those teams in action tonight. While Texas can’t make a huge statement with a win over Oklahoma tonight, a victory is necessary to keep hopes alive.

Northwestern and South Florida both have chances to knock off opponents in the RPI’s Top 25, as they host Ohio State and travel to Louisville, respectively. A win by either of those teams will easily push them past Texas in the pecking order, but that is much easier said than done. If the Wildcats and Bulls can’t notch signature wins, the Longhorns have an opportunity to create a little cushion in the S-curve with a victory tonight.

Meet the Sooners

For an in-depth look at the Oklahoma roster and the team’s key stats, check out LRT’s game preview from the first meeting between these two teams.

The first meeting

For a post-game from the first Texas/OU match-up this season, read LRT’s recap of the Texas victory in Norman.

Since then…

With Texas and Oklahoma not squaring off until mid-February, the teams had to wait just 15 days to face each other once again. The Sooners posted a 1-2 mark since last facing the Longhorns, with their only victory coming at home against Oklahoma State. In that game, Oklahoma logged a 45.5% success rate from behind the arc, led by Steven Pledger’s hot hand. The junior guard was 3-for-4 from long range and was tops on the team with 17 points.

Tyler Neal also found success from three-point range in that game, knocking down two of his four attempts. The sophomore made some clutch threes against Texas, and that performance jump-started his recent resurgence. After averaging just a shade over eight minutes per game in OU’s first 14 Big 12 contests, Neal logged 17 minutes against the Longhorns. In the three games since then, he’s averaged more than 18, and has become a key contributor off the bench. As the Longhorns learned in Norman, Neal cannot be given too much space to shoot.

The Texas game also proved to be a launching pad for fellow sophomore Cameron Clark. After a freshman season in which he showed flashes of brilliance, Clark had yet to make a big splash against quality opponents this season. He finally dazzled against the Horns, however, putting in 13 points in a 38-minute performance. He’s hardly left the floor since facing Texas, averaging 14 points and nearly 34 minutes in those three contests.

Keys to the game

1) Start quickly – The Longhorns struggled early against the Oklahoma zone in Norman, although it certainly wasn’t the fault of point guard Myck Kabongo. He consistently found creases in the defense and set up his teammates, but the Horns were ice cold from the floor. If Texas can hit those open looks tonight and get the reactionary Erwin Center crowd into it right away, this one could have a very different feel from the first game.

2) Limit second-chance points – The Sooners are one of the nation’s best when it comes to reclaiming missed shots, snagging more than 36% of their offensive board chances. Texas kept Oklahoma right at their season average, allowing the Sooners to reclaim 36.1% of their missed shots. Even more importantly, Oklahoma was only able to turn those offensive boards into eight extra points. If Texas can hold OU to a similar number tonight, a season sweep should be in the cards.

3) Lock down the perimeter – Oklahoma only made 33% of their threes in the first game, but have a pair of quality outside shooters in Pledger and the suddenly-important Neal. As any fan of college basketball knows, the triple is the great equalizer, so Texas needs to keep those two Sooners from getting hot beyond the arc. Oklahoma lacks any other real sharpshooters, so chasing Pledger and Neal off the perimeter will greatly diminish the chances of an upset tonight.