Margin for error is a thing of the past for the Texas Longhorns. Rick Barnes’ young team lost any wiggle room they might have had in their quest for the NCAA tournament, falling to Oklahoma State and Baylor in back-to-back games. The two defeats put Texas right back on the bubble with only three games left in the regular season.

Few people hold the illusion that the Longhorns will march into Allen Fieldhouse and earn a win against Kansas in the season finale. That means that Texas has to win their next two games and one in the Big 12 tournament to even get to the 20-win plateau. Thanks to an incredibly soft bubble this season, Texas could even still squeak into this year’s NCAA tournament with less than 20 wins.

Regardless of how many victories the team finishes the year with, what the Horns simply cannot afford to have is the stench of a loss to Texas Tech emanating from their résumé If Texas goes down in Lubbock this afternoon, it’s time to start making plans for the NIT.

Meet the Red Raiders

To learn more about the Texas Tech players and the team’s style of basketball, check out LRT’s game preview from the first game between these two teams.

The first game

The Longhorns set the tone early, swatting Texas Tech’s shots with regularity. Unable to score, the Red Raiders were further discouraged by a Texas offense that penetrated at will and scored in bunches. Senior Clint Chapman was the biggest benefactor, scoring 20 points on a ton of easy looks and a perfect 8-of-8 mark at the line.

The game was never in doubt, and Texas built a lead as large as 25 points in the second half. Despite the deep hole, Texas Tech continued to fight, reeling off an eight-point run before trading buckets down the stretch. Texas cruised to a 74-57 victory, as three different Horns scored at least 17 points.

In the post-game presser, Coach Barnes showed concern over that late defensive lapse, saying his team started to “play with no purpose.” If the Longhorns manage to build a big lead at United Spirit Arena this afternoon, you can be sure that the coaches will remind them to stay focused.

Since then…

Texas Tech managed to avoid the historical shame of an 0-for-conference season, whipping Oklahoma at home two weeks ago. The Red Raiders locked down Sooner superstar Steven Pledger, holding him to just four points. A box-and-one defense was especially effective for Tech down the stretch, as Bean Willis stuck with Pledger and frustrated him in crunch time.

The Red Raiders were unable to build on that victory, however, scoring just 38 points in a home loss to A&M three days later. Even more shocking than that final output was the fact that Tech managed just 12 of those points in the final 21:30 of the game. The Red Raiders posted an offensive efficiency mark of only 0.716 points per possession, coughing it up on more than 26% of their trips down the floor.

Tech followed that game with a predictable drubbing in Allen Fieldhouse at the hands of the Jayhawks, but then performed admirably in a road game against Iowa State. Although the Cyclones ultimately won by a 72-54 count, the Red Raiders trailed by just three points at the under-eight media timeout. Unfortunately, Tech managed just two points the rest of the way as Iowa State pulled away for the victory.

Keys to the game

1) Force turnovers – The Red Raiders have one of the few rosters in the country with less experience than Texas, and that youth has shown in the form of constant miscues. Tech is one of the five worst teams in the nation when it comes to turnover percentage, losing the ball on 25.9% of their possessions. If the Longhorns defense can ensure that Tech continues that trend this afternoon, it will not only cripple the Red Raider offense, but also fuel the transition game for Texas.

2) Make the freebies – While Tech is one of the worst five teams in terms of turnovers, they are nearly as bad when it comes to sending opponents to the line. The team’s defensive free-throw rate of 49.6% is one of the 10 worst in D-I hoops, and it means that Texas Tech opponents shoot one free throw for every two field goal attempts.

The Longhorns are knocking down 73% of their free throws so far this year, but have had random games where that number has been closer to 60%. Leaving points at the line will only serve to keep Tech in the game, something that is incredibly dangerous on the road.

3) Make Big Lew uncomfortable – Robert Lewandowski has proven to be a very streaky player in his four years at Texas Tech, and when he’s on a hot streak he can be incredibly effective. On the other side of the coin, he’s also proven that a rough start can essentially knock him out of the game before it really even gets going.

If the Texas defense can replicate their work from the first game, Big Lew will have a hard time getting started. Forcing him to take tough shots early and attacking him on defense should knock Lewandowski out of his comfort zone. Without a big game from their biggest player, Tech will have a hard time pulling off the upset.

The cries rang out almost immediately on Saturday afternoon. Still stinging from watching their team suffer a road loss to Oklahoma State, Texas fans littered message boards, Twitter, and the blogosphere with their own personal obituaries for the 2011-12 basketball season.

Those frustrated rants grew in number on Monday night, as the Longhorns blew a 12-point lead to Baylor in the second half, letting a potentially monumental win slip right through their fingers. Any orangeblood with an internet connection knew for a fact that the NCAA was out of reach, and that this Longhorn team was bound for the NIT. If more Texas fans were aware of the existence of the CBI and CIT, there likely would have been quite a few folks penciling the Horns into those brackets, as well.

The most overlooked fact in all of this hand-wringing, however, is that Texas doesn’t play basketball in a vacuum. It’s not just the results of Longhorn games that will shape the NCAA bracket, which won’t even be completely filled in until March 11th. The simple fact of the matter is that the Selection Committee has to put 68 teams into the field every year, and this is one of those seasons where it’s very difficult to find enough worthy squads. As Mike Finger put it after the heartbreaking loss to Baylor, “Look at the wretched class of goof-offs on the bubble.”

Fortunately for Longhorn fans, many of those goof-offs decided to copy Texas’ performance from Monday night when faced with their own big games on Tuesday. Northwestern failed to score for the final two minutes of regulation and first three minutes of overtime, missing the chance to pad their résumé with a big win over Michigan. N.C. State dropped their third straight game against a top-flight ACC team, losing to North Carolina by 12. Elsewhere, Xavier couldn’t come up with a road victory against UMass, dropping a seven-point decision to the Minutemen.

Only Seton Hall and Colorado State made strong statements on Tuesday night, logging big home victories over Georgetown and New Mexico, respectively. The Pirates now boast seven wins against the RPI Top 100 and will wrap up the regular season with very winnable games against Rutgers and DePaul. At this point, it certainly looks like Kevin Willard should have Seton Hall in the dance in just his second year on the job.

The Rams, meanwhile, present a much more interesting case. They own very strong computer numbers, including a schedule that was 7th-toughest nationally even before they knocked off New Mexico. That challenging schedule won’t get any easier, though, as Colorado State still must travel to San Diego State and host UNLV. Barring a clean sweep of those games, the Rams will likely have work left to do in the MWC tournament.

After all of the dust had settled from a busy Tuesday night, the Longhorns — already written off by their fanbase — found themselves back in Joe Lunardi’s bracket. Clinging to the edge of the bubble, Texas was once again one of the “Last Four In,” with a game against league doormat Texas Tech coming up on Saturday. Thanks to all of the bubble carnage happening nationwide, simply winning easy games can keep Texas on the right side of the cutline for now.

If you’re new to Burnt Orange Bubble Watch, here’s a quick recap of the rules. The table below is based on Lunardi’s Monday bracket, with slight revisions made based on his bubble update following Tuesday’s action. Barring any bid thievery in conference tournaments, teams listed above the black line would be dancing according to Joe.

The W-L records only include games against D-I competition. Asterisks next to team names indicate the number of wins that were not against D-I foes, and thus do not count for profile purposes. RPI and SOS numbers are taken from Monday’s update from the NCAA, and records against the RPI Top 50 and Top 100 are updated through Tuesday night’s games. The “KP W-L” column shows each team’s predicted final record, as calculated by Ken Pomeroy.

With no one wanting to step up and make a charge at the end of the season, the pack of contenders sitting below the cutline grows with every update. More and more teams slide further down the list, making the clump of teams at the bottom of the chart a muddled mess of candidates whose tournament hopes are incredibly slim. Thanks to the inability of big-conference bubblers to nail down quality wins, some surprising teams are rising through the ranks simply by winning the games they are supposed to. Central Florida and South Florida are now sitting just outside of the tournament field according to Lunardi, although the Bulls have a terribly tough slate to finish the year. Meanwhile, the Golden Knights will still have to take care of Memphis on the road, but have a very manageable road ahead of them in the C-USA.

Tons of bubble games are on tap again tonight, although almost all the action involves teams still left on the outside looking in. For these squads, wins are practically mandatory at this point if they hope to catch the rest of the competition. Here are the games Horn fans should be keeping an eye on tonight:

Mississippi at Tennessee, 6 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court 1/ESPN3)
Dayton at Duquesne, 6 P.M. CT
Richmond at St. Joseph’s, 6 P.M. CT
VCU at UNC-Wilmington, 6 P.M. CT
South Florida at Syracuse, 7 P.M. CT (ESPN Full Court 2/ESPN3)
Michigan State at Minnesota, 7:30 P.M. CT (Big Ten Network)
Central Florida at Rice, 8 P.M. CT
Wyoming at San Diego State, 9:30 P.M. CT (The Mtn)

The Golden Gophers can make the biggest statement of the night with a win over Michigan State, which would undoubtedly leapfrog them over much of the competition. South Florida can also come up with a huge victory, but upsetting Syracuse at the Carrier Dome will be extremely difficult. Dayton also has a lot to prove in their road trip to Pittsburgh, as the Flyers have been up-and-down all year and have already lost to the Dukes at home. Dayton has quite a few quality wins on the résumé, but has to avoid dropping too many games down the stretch and giving the committee a reason to leave them out.

The Longhorns, meanwhile, have three more days to sit back, relax, and let other teams make mistakes. While there’s little chance that Texas fans will feel any level of comfort heading into Selection Sunday, it’s clear that their team is at least still in the mix.

The Texas Longhorns took a big step backwards on Saturday, losing to Oklahoma State and a superhuman Keiton Page in Stillwater. The loss snapped the team’s four-game winning streak and set the Horns back a few pegs on the S-curve, with just two weeks left in the regular season. A win over the Cowboys would have kept Texas safely above the bubble, but now the Horns find themselves back in the danger zone.

With just three wins against the RPI Top 50, the Longhorn résumé could use some extra lines. Those three victories came against Temple (currently 16th in the RPI), Iowa State (40th), and Kansas State (50th), so a win tonight over Baylor (10th) would certainly bolster Texas’ post-season hopes. While the Longhorns could still feasibly make the NCAAs without a win tonight, it would require a lot of help from other teams, or a solid run in the conference tournament.

Texas has had more than its fair share of opportunities to knock off top teams, having lost three games against teams in the RPI’s Top 10 by a combined nine points. Tonight’s battle with Baylor represents the best chance the Longhorns have left for a defining victory. The only question that remains is whether or not this young team can finally rise to the challenge.

Meet the Bears

For a full look at the Baylor roster, check out LRT’s game preview from the first time these two teams met.

The first game

The Longhorns found success early against the Baylor defense with quick ball movement and aggressive play. Texas actually built a small, early lead over the Bears, holding a four-point edge eight minutes into the game. But with both Clint Chapman and Myck Kabongo cooling their heels on the bench after picking up two fouls each, Baylor was able to pull ahead and take a nine-point lead to the locker room.

Although the Bears stretched their lead as large as 12 points, the Longhorns chipped away at that advantage throughout the second half. J’Covan Brown exploded for 20 of his 32 points after the break, bring the Longhorns all the way back to tie it with just 2:53 to go. Pierre Jackson immediately responded with a clutch three to give Baylor a new lead, one that the team would never relinquish. Although Brown had a three-point attempt to tie the game with 10 seconds left, it clanked off the iron and the Bears salted it away with a pair of free throws by A.J. Walton.

Perry Jones III led the way for Baylor, posting a double-double with an impressive 22-point, 14-rebound line. Quincy Miller also put up great numbers, showing off a smooth jump shot as he piled up 18 points.

Texas did a great job rattling the Baylor offense in the first meeting, turning 18 miscues into 20 points. Unfortunately, the Longhorns also had one of their worst outings of the season at the free-throw line, making just 16 of their 26 attempts. In a game where the Bears only won by five points and made 80% of their own shots at the charity stripe, that failure to convert the freebies was crippling.

Since then…

Baylor has posted just a 3-3 record since facing the Longhorns, with two of those wins coming narrowly against teams at the bottom of the standings. The Bears needed some last minute heroics from Jackson — and an inexplicably bad shot from Elston Turner — to knock off A&M at Reed Arena, 63-60. A few days later, the Bears again held on in the final minute to earn a 64-60 road win at Oklahoma State.

After surviving those close calls, the Bears were hoping to earn some revenge the following week against the only two teams to defeat them — Kansas and Missouri. Instead, Baylor was embarrassed on national television by Kansas and Jeff Withey, and then lost by 15 to the Tigers in Columbia.

Two games out of first place and having been swept by both of the teams ahead of them, the Bears were essentially eliminated from the Big 12 race. Saturday’s one-point loss at home to Kansas State served only to shovel more dirt on those title hopes, while also dropping Baylor into a tie for third with Iowa State.

Over the last two weeks, the PJ3 critics have once again been out in force. The sophomore star has long been lambasted for disappearing in big games and lacking the drive to carry his team. With the Bears losing three out of their last four, his weak performances have given the naysayers plenty of ammo. In the losses to Kansas, Baylor, and Kansas State, PJ3 averaged just 4.3 points per game on 19.2% shooting from the field.

The Bears have also seen a severe drop-off in their three point success. In their last five games, Baylor has made just 28.2% of their long-range attempts, a far cry from the 41.4% mark they carried into the first game with Texas. While there’s certainly no way that the Longhorns can lay off the Baylor three-point shooters and focus solely on the interior threats, another rough night for Baylor behind the arc will definitely help Texas’ chances.

Keys to the game

1) Win the turnover battle – The Longhorns did an excellent job forcing mistakes when they took on the Bears in Waco. Baylor ended more than 26% of their possessions with a turnover, leading to 20 points for the Longhorns. In front of a Texas crowd that often only cheers when given a reason to, fast break buckets will be key to keeping the Longhorn fans on their feet.

In Saturday’s loss to Oklahoma State, Texas coughed it up on more than 21% of their possessions, while forcing the Cowboys into mistakes on just 11% of theirs. Even if Texas isn’t able to force as many mistakes by Baylor as they did the first time around, the Horns simply cannot afford to waste their own possessions. Texas absolutely must take better care of the basketball tonight.

2) Make the second chances count – One of Baylor’s most glaring weaknesses is their inability to close out possessions with defensive boards. Even though their team is long and athletic, the Bears are in the bottom half of D-I hoops when it comes to allowing offensive rebounds. The Longhorns happen to be the 13th-best offensive rebounding team in the nation, so they will certainly get some second and third chances tonight. Texas must take advantage of those extended possessions and turn them into more points.

3) Move the ball quickly – The Baylor zone has sprung a few leaks this season, as Kansas showed the nation in their win on February 8th. The Bears are especially susceptible in the short corner, often failing to rotate and giving up easy points on the baseline. Texas exploited this a few times in Waco, and needs to do the same again tonight. Quick ball movement and aggressive penetration will force Baylor to react on defense, something that has been a major problem for the team all season long.

4) Avoid first-half foul trouble – Kabongo and Chapman have been particularly bad offenders in this category, spending much of the first half on the bench in multiple conference games. While some of Chapman’s first-half fouls fall on other Longhorns missing defensive assignments, Kabongo often picks up cheap fouls on plays he has no business trying to make. The Longhorns will need both players to remain in the game this evening, and will also need Alexis Wangmene to avoid foul trouble and help compete against Baylor’s size.

5) Get McClellan going – If Kabongo does happen to find himself in foul trouble, it will be much easier for Baylor to focus their defense on Brown. Sheldon McClellan needs to be assertive and make himself a scoring threat to open things up for his teammates. When McClellan takes charge, the Longhorn offense is much less stagnant, and much more difficult to defend.

Oklahoma State senior Keiton Page saved his best performance for last. In his first seven games against the Texas Longhorns, the Oklahoma native was held to just 36 total points on 8-of-40 shooting. The Cowboys were a dismal 1-6 against Texas in those games, losing by an average of 14.5 points. Page made up for all of that on Saturday afternoon, exploding for a career-high 40 points to power Oklahoma State to a 90-78 win over Texas at Gallagher-Iba Arena.

The loss snapped a four-game winning streak for the Longhorns, and marked a big step backwards for a team that was progressing towards the NCAA tournament. Although Texas remained in Joe Lunardi’s bracket following Saturday’s action, the team was the next-to-last squad in the field. With tough games still to come against Baylor and Kansas, a win over Oklahoma State would have allowed the Longhorns a little more wiggle room though the final two weeks of the season and the Big 12 Championship.

What looked good

Although the Longhorns were down by just three points midway through the second half, there was not much for Texas fans to get excited about. Myck Kabongo set a new career high with 22 points, but took himself out of the game for much of the first half with a pair of early fouls. When he was on the floor, Kabongo was able to get to the rim with ease, knocked down his open looks from outside, and kept the offense moving. If Texas is going to find any success in March, the freshman point guard has to stop picking up needless fouls that relegate him to the bench.

Without Kabongo on the floor for much of the first half, freshman Sheldon McClellan picked up the scoring slack. He was aggressive from the wings and showed good body control when elevating to knock down the floater. When McClellan plays with his instincts, he’s very hard to stop, as evidenced by his performance in this one.

While Sheldon could definitely earn his way back into the starting five by playing like this, it’s also tough to give up the defense that Julien Lewis provides. Against smaller teams, the Longhorns could shelve the two towers look and give McClellan the nod over Alexis Wangmene. Regardless of who is actually in the starting lineup, it’s reassuring for Texas fans to see someone besides Kabongo and J’Covan Brown willing to take control and get buckets.

Sterling Gibbs also made some nice offensive contributions while filling in for Kabongo. He knocked down a triple and scored three points the old-fashioned way on a quick drive to the hoop. He struggled defending Page, however, getting called for two fouls while trying to contain him off the ball. With Texas having been whistled for six fouls in the first four minutes of the game, those off-the-ball transgressions turned into four easy points for the Pokes.

What needed work

The foul trouble that kept Kabongo out of the game in the first half was a team-wide epidemic. Wangmene and Clint Chapman both found themselves saddled with two fouls in the first few minutes, forcing the Longhorns to go with a rotating frontcourt. As a result, Jonathan Holmes and Jaylen Bond combined to play 43 minutes.

The Longhorn defense was especially undisciplined in this game, looking nothing like a team coached by Rick Barnes. Texas defenders consistently bit on shot fakes, leaving their feet and fouling jump shooters. Page ended up going to the line 20 times on the afternoon, and made Texas pay by sinking every single free throw. When the Longhorns weren’t giving away free points at the line, poor rotation led to numerous easy buckets inside.

On the other end of the court, the Horns scuttled their comeback bid with poorly-timed turnovers. Texas coughed it up on 21.3% of their possessions. In the first half, those miscues led to easy fast break points for Oklahoma State. In the second, the Horns were at least able to limit the damage from the turnovers, but those wasted possessions were crippling when trying to dig out of a 14-point hole.

The Longhorn comeback was also undermined by frustrating offensive rebounds that ruined good defense. On the afternoon, Texas actually did an incredible job on the defensive glass, limiting OSU to an offensive rebounding mark of just 21.7%. But late in the game, with the Longhorns needing big stops to stay in it, those critical defensive boards were often just out of reach. All five of Oklahoma State’s offensive rebounds came in the second half, extending Cowboy possessions and burning critical time that the Longhorns needed.

The big picture

Yesterday’s loss kills the momentum that Texas had been building over the last two weeks, and knocks the Horns further down the S-curve. There have been numerous losses by other bubble contenders over the last week, so the loss isn’t quite as damaging as it could be. Still, the struggles by other bubble teams mean that the Horns let a golden opportunity slip away. Instead of stepping further away from a very mediocre pack, the Horns are now once again fighting for elbow room with all of the other bubblers.

A win over Oklahoma State would have practically guaranteed a 20-win season, which would be quite impressive to the committee when you consider Texas’ strength of schedule. The Horns can still get there, but now will have to mix in an upset of Baylor or Kansas, or a win in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Championship. That quarterfinal game will be against either Baylor or Iowa State, so a win there will be a tough task.

Of course, if the Horns happen to trip up against Oklahoma in Austin or Texas Tech in Lubbock, all of this discussion is moot. The loss to the Cowboys was the only questionable defeat that Texas could still afford at this point. Dropping one to the Sooners or the Red Raiders will have the Horns NIT-bound.

Up next: vs. Baylor (22-5 overall, 9-5 Big 12); Monday, 8 P.M. CT

The Texas Longhorns are riding high as they head into Stillwater, boasting a four-game winning streak and rising stock on the National Bubble Exchange. With just five games left in the regular season, the Horns still have their sights set on a 20-win season, something that may have seemed unimaginable in mid-January.

This afternoon’s game at Gallagher-Iba Arena might look like an easy win on paper, but road victories are always tough to come by in Stillwater. With bubble teams around the nation missing key opportunities to secure quality wins, simply taking care of business on the road improves Texas’ post-season outlook. Avoid getting tripped up this afternoon at Gallagher-Iba, and the Horns can start breathing a little easier when thinking about the NCAAs.

Meet the Cowboys

For a full look at the Oklahoma State roster, check out LRT’s game preview from the first time these two teams met.

The first game

Texas overcame putrid shooting and a lingering injury to J’Covan Brown in a narrow 58-49 victory over Oklahoma State at the Erwin Center on January 7th. The Longhorns forced 21 Cowboy turnovers and kept a thin Oklahoma State rotation in constant foul trouble, grinding their way to victory.

In just his second career start, redshirt freshman Brian Williams led the Pokes in scoring, posting 16 points on the night. After struggling in his first career start just days earlier against Tech, Williams drained a pair of threes against the Longhorns. The team’s new point guard still battled turnover issues under the bright lights, but his scoring helped to solidify his role as the new starter.

For the Longhorns, guard Myck Kabongo and freshman forward Jonathan Holmes led the way. Kabongo was aggressive with the ball, penetrating the Oklahoma State defense to set his teammates up with good looks and earn himself trips to the line. Unfortunately, the Longhorns had a terrible night shooting the basketball, so Kabongo only actually earned six assists for the game. Meanwhile, Holmes chipped in a great performance on the offensive glass, turning four offensive boards into four easy buckets.

Since then…

Williams has started every conference game for the Pokes, with freshman guard Cezar Guerrero now relegated to the bench. Against Big 12 opponents, Williams has averaged more than 11 points in 35 minutes per game. Although he knocked down 2-of-5 from long range against Texas, he has not found much more success behind the arc, making just 5-of-36 in his other conference games.

Markel Brown has also made a big impact for OSU over the last few weeks. The sophomore was still recovering from an injury when Texas hosted the Cowboys in the first matchup, and he simply couldn’t get it going on the offensive end. Brown was just 1-of-6 from the floor against the Horns and scored only three points. Since then, he’s averaged 14.4 points per game for OSU, including a solid 19-point performance in a big home win over Iowa State.

Freshman Le’Bryan Nash has also found his stride in conference play, as his 14.8 scoring average in Big 12 games is tops among league freshman. Nash also sparked a furious second-half rally for Oklahoma State against Missouri, finishing with 27 points in the monumental upset. The Longhorns were able to hold him to just 12 points in their first meeting, but could have a much tougher time limiting his impact in this one.

Keys to the game

1) Get out to a fast start – The Longhorns have become a second-half team this season, often falling behind early before roaring back in the final 20 minutes. Gallagher-Iba is an arena that gets loud in a hurry, even when it’s only half full. If the Longhorns allow Oklahoma State to get any momentum early, it could be very hard to stage a comeback in this road environment.

The Gallagher-Iba aura is also why Texas needs to be sure to stop any runs, even if that means burning some timeouts early. Missouri can testify to how quickly Oklahoma State can get going with its crowd behind it, so the Longhorns must respond to those momentum swings, whether it’s with a fan-silencing basket or simply a 30-second timeout.

2) Attack inside – The Cowboys have a frontcourt that is just as thin as Texas’, if not more so. With just Michael Cobbins, Philip Jurick, and Euro-style big Marek Souček available, the Cowboys have little option but to go with a smaller lineup when their forwards get into foul trouble. Texas has done a great job being aggressive with the basketball in its last two games, earning a heap of points at the free-throw line. If the guards and wings can keep that up in this afternoon’s games, the whistles will force Coach Travis Ford to get creative with his lineup.

3) Limit the damage outside – Oklahoma State doesn’t have much in the way of outside threats, but senior Keiton Page is always dangerous from long range. Nothing fuels an upset more than hot three-point shooting, and Page comes into this one on a tear. Although his success rate for the season is just 34.6%, he’s made 9-of-20 from behind the arc in the team’s last two games. If Texas can keep Page and Brown from knocking down a handful of threes, the odds for an Oklahoma State upset take a serious hit.