It was an excellent bubble week for the Texas Longhorns, as they took care of their own business at the same time that their main competitors were taking steps backwards. Texas extended its current winning streak to four games — the team’s longest since mid-December — and added a quality victory to the tournament résumé with a furious comeback against Kansas State.

As we did in last week’s edition of the Burnt Orange Bubble Watch, we are focusing in on the teams who are barely clinging to an NCAA bid and those who are still within striking distance. The Longhorns won’t have the prettiest profile when it comes time to slot teams in the tournament, but they only have to fare better than the other ugly ducklings they are directly competing against. For that reason, our narrow focus shuts out the white noise and clarifies the picture for Texas fans.

Joe Lunardi is the only mainstream bracketologist who makes his S-curve available, so his rankings are used for the sake of sorting the teams. That’s an important point to remember, as these rankings are not to be taken as gospel, but rather a jumping-off point so we can compare the Longhorns to the other teams currently in contention.

Now, a recap of all of the pertinent info. RPI and SOS numbers in this chart are taken from the most recent official update from the NCAA, which includes games through Sunday, February 12th. Records only include games against teams in Division I, and also exclude games against teams still transitioning to D-I. (Sorry, Colorado State, that win over Nebraska-Omaha is a no-go.) All records have been updated through Wednesday’s action, although the records against the two subgroups of the RPI Top 100 are based on those RPI rankings from Monday. This means that results against teams located near the cutlines of 50 and 100 could gain or lose importance based on games that have occurred since that Monday update.

All teams listed above the big black line are currently dancing according to Lunardi’s projections, while those below would miss the tournament. This exercise also assumes that all of the auto-bid winners are teams which would have already made the tournament. So, if somebody in the Big West surprises Long Beach State in the conference tourney and the 49ers still grab an at-large, the number of available bids would shrink by one, and that black line would creep further up the table.

Texas added a quality win by beating Kansas State, but the recent slide by the Wildcats knocked them out of the RPI Top 50. With upcoming road games against Baylor and Missouri, it’s unlikely that KSU will be climbing back into the Top 50, which leaves the Horns with just two big-time wins to beat their chest over. Tuesday night’s win over Oklahoma was once a Top 100 RPI victory, but the Sooners tripped up against Texas Tech on Saturday and slid down to 104 in Monday’s RPI release. Following the loss to the Longhorns, Oklahoma will only be heading further from the Top 100.

Fortunately, most of Texas’ direct competitors failed to log their own quality wins over the last week. Illinois lost at home to Purdue last night, the team’s fourth-consecutive loss and seventh in their last eight games. Based on their current trajectory, it’s likely that they continue slipping down the S-curve, right past Texas and into dangerous territory. Crosstown rivals Cincinnati and Xavier both failed to pick up big road wins, dropping games at Marquette and Temple, respectively. Miami also had a big opportunity in front of them when UNC came to town last night, but the Hurricanes let a halftime lead melt away, along with their chances to prove that the win over Duke was no fluke.

Even with those teams missing the boat, there was very little movement downward, thanks to a complete lack of upward pressure from those teams on the outside of the bubble. Northwestern whiffed on two chances to log quality road wins, falling short against both Purdue and Indiana. The Wildcats have an eerily similar profile to the Longhorns, so it does seem odd that Lunardi deems Texas worthy, yet finds Northwestern lacking. Of course, if the Wildcats keep losing the big ones, there won’t be much uproar if they do in fact miss the field.

Behind Northwestern, the gaggle of Mountain West teams jockeying for a fourth conference bid keep faceplanting against the bottom half of the league. After Wyoming was held to 38 points in a road loss to New Mexico on Saturday, the Cowboys followed it up with an inexcusable home loss to Air Force last night. Colorado State was nipped at the buzzer by Boise State, just days after being upset by TCU in Fort Worth. Even with those gaudy computer numbers, the Rams are making it very difficult to justify an NCAA bid.

All of this mediocrity is why it appears that the Longhorns control their own destiny at this point. Road games against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech are both winnable, while the home date with Oklahoma provides another good chance for a victory. A few teams might finally turn it on down the stretch and catch up with Texas, but the schedule is certainly in the Longhorns’ favor at this point. Barring a bunch of madness in the conference tournaments, it appears that Texas just needs to win the games it is supposed to win while other conference’s bubble prospects cannibalize each other.

As we look ahead, the following chart includes Ken Pomeroy’s projected final records for the bubble contenders, which are calculated using the cumulative odds from each team’s remaining schedule. Quality win opportunities are listed for any games against teams in the RPI Top 100.

While there are a ton of chances for other bubble teams to log quality wins, so far the breaks have all been going in the favor of the Longhorns. There are sure to be a few upsets over the next few weeks, but no team has yet shown the momentum needed to make a surge up the charts. If they can avoid any embarrassing losses down the stretch, it appears that the Horns won’t be sweating too much on Selection Sunday.

For the 12th time this season, the Longhorns headed to the locker room on Tuesday night trailing their opponents. Texas had allowed the Oklahoma Sooners to build an eight-point lead late in the first before Sheldon McClellan finished out the half with a clutch three-point play to close the gap to five at the break. Unfortunately for the Sooners, there was still another half to be played.

The Longhorns continued their trend of strong second-half basketball, roaring out of the locker room with a seven-point burst that put them on top and set the tone for the final twenty minutes. Texas shot over 45% from the field in the second half after making just a third of their attempts in the first, and they forced 10 Oklahoma turnovers after the break. The Longhorns outscored the Sooners by 16 in the second frame, cruising to an 11-point win.

What looked good

Julien Lewis took over for the first few minutes of the second half, scoring on a fast break layup to open the scoring. On the next possession, he forced one of those 10 turnovers and turned his steal into a fast break bucket. Just two minutes later, Lewis added an offensive board on an outstanding hustle play, which led to a wide open three for Myck Kabongo that put the Horns on top by one.

J’Covan Brown kept the rally going for Texas, bouncing back from a tough and inefficient first half. After going 2-for-8 in the first half, Brown sank three of his six shots in the second, with all three makes coming from behind the arc. He also added a pair of steals as Texas turned up the defensive pressure in the second half.

Freshman Sheldon McClellan cracked double figures in scoring for the 16th time this year, chipping in 13 points. Although he missed all three of his attempts from long range, McClellan attacked with the bounce, knocking in some nice floaters amidst traffic. He also earned his way to the stripe with those drives, adding five points on a perfect night at the line. McClellan also snagged five boards, four of those coming on the defensive end. Against a solid offensive rebounding team like Oklahoma, getting that kind of board production from a swingman is huge.

McClellan wasn’t the only Longhorn who manufactured points, as the Longhorns did an excellent job attacking the defense inside and earning trips to the line in the second half. It was the second straight game that Texas scored a ton of points from the charity stripe down the stretch. Against Kansas State and Oklahoma, the Longhorns shot 46 second-half free throws, converting 39 of them. To put it in a tempo-free context, Texas posted a free-throw rate of 121%, meaning that the Horns actually shot 21% more free throws than field goals in their last two second halves.

Kabongo was a big part of that success at the line, as the freshman guard made all six of his free throw attempts. He finished with 13 points and seven assists — one on a highlight-reel alley-oop to Jaylen Bond — but easily could have had a double-double if his teammates converted the looks he was setting up for them. In the first half, Myck was the most successful player against the Oklahoma zone, consistently finding soft spots to penetrate before dishing it down low. Unfortunately, the Longhorns couldn’t make their open looks and started the game just 2-of-7 from the field.

What needed work

Those problems inside were especially tough for big man Clint Chapman, who made just two of nine on the night. While his makes came on a pair of nice midrange jumpers from the baseline, he was completely ineffective from within a few feet of the rim. Clint has played really well over the last few weeks, so fans have to hope that this was just one bad game and he will revert to that high level of play. On a Longhorn team that relies on quick, driving guards, the frontcourt has to be able to convert those easy looks inside.

The only other major concern for the Longhorns was a bit of lazy play against Oklahoma’s 3-2 zone in the first half. Although Kabongo was consistently attacking and the Horns were getting some quality looks from long range, there were still quite a few possessions where Texas settled for long, challenged jumpers. A team will never run every possession to perfection, but on a night where even the open looks weren’t going down, it made the wasted possessions stick out even more.

The Longhorns will be facing another zone on Monday night when they take on Baylor, so they need to remain disciplined and do the right things on offense. The Bear zone is particularly weak in the short corner, so quality team offense can result in a ton of easy buckets if Texas makes the smart plays.

The big picture

The fact that the Longhorns shot that poorly from the floor and still pulled out a win on the road is very reassuring. While Oklahoma isn’t a team bound for the NCAAs, they are still much more talented than their 3-10 conference record indicates. Finding a way to win on an off night is the sign of a quality team, and overcoming that kind of adversity has been a challenge for Texas this season.

Although this four-game winning streak includes wins over the bottom three teams in the league standings, it is still very encouraging. Two of those wins came on the road, while the comeback win against Kansas State at home was truly remarkable. The Texas schedule is easier than those of some other bubble teams right now, and the Horns are simply taking care of business. Although many of these wins won’t beef up the résumé, by simply continuing to win, the Horns are moving themselves up the S-curve. With just three victories needed for the magical 20-win mark, a W at Oklahoma State on Saturday would make that milestone a near certainty.

Up next: at Oklahoma State (12-13 overall, 5-7 Big 12); Saturday, 3 P.M. CT

For the first time in nearly two months, the Texas Longhorns are owners of a three-game winning streak. With their post-season hopes hanging precariously in the balance, the current run of success could not have come at a better time. During the streak, the Horns have moved up from Joe Lunardi’s “Next Four Out” — where five or six teams blocked their path to the NCAAs — to beyond the “Last Four In,” currently avoiding the play-in games in Dayton.

Of course, there’s still nearly four weeks of basketball until Selection Sunday. That is more than enough time for Texas to trip up in late February, something that has become a tradition over the last two years. The Longhorns have about as easy of a second-half conference schedule as they could get in a league as deep as the Big 12, but that’s not saying much. Tonight’s game against an Oklahoma team that’s just 3-9 in the conference qualifies as one of their easiest games left, but it’s deceptively tough. While the Sooners might look like an easy W on paper, escaping Norman with a win is truly a much more dangerous proposition.

By the numbers

First-year coach Lon Kruger has turned Oklahoma around faster than anyone could have imagined, rapidly rebuilding a team that was picked in the preseason to tie for last place with Texas Tech. The Sooners tore through a non-conference slate that included a lot of cupcake opponents, but they also logged quality wins over Arkansas and Oral Roberts. Heading into conference play, they were undoubtedly one of the league’s biggest surprise teams.

Big 12 play hasn’t been kind to OU, however. After a blowout loss in the conference opener to Missouri, the Sooners have been competitive in every game, but have had a tough time nailing down victories. They played the Jayhawks tough for a half in Norman, but let the league leaders pull away in the second. A road loss to A&M came in overtime, and would have been a victory if not for failure to execute at the end of regulation. Last week, a potential game-tying three-pointer clanged off the iron at the buzzer and allowed Mizzou to escape with a win.

A big part of the problem for Oklahoma has been a porous defense in league games. Against conference opponents, the Sooners allow more than 1.1 points per possession, the worst efficiency mark in the Big 12. With their two primary forwards checking in at just 6’8″, the Sooners are allowing Big 12 teams to kill them down low, with opponents hitting 54.1% of their shots from inside the arc. If Clint Chapman and Alexis Wangmene can continue their strong play in the post, the Longhorns should be able to take advantage of this weakness.

Offense hasn’t been much better for the Sooners in conference play, as they score just 0.968 points per possession. Oklahoma was one of the nation’s best three-point shooting teams in non-con play, but their numbers have dropped off dramatically against the Big 12. After knocking down 40.9% of their long-range attempts in non-conference games, OU has made just 31.6% of their threes in league games. This is mostly a result of shrinking the core rotation down to just seven players, as now Steven Pledger is the only consistent outside shooter who plays significant minutes. If the Longhorns can keep him from getting hot from outside, it will certainly damage OU’s hopes for an upset.

Texas fans can also be reassured by Oklahoma’s aversion to the free throw line. The Sooners have one of the worst free-throw rates in the country, earning less than one attempt at the charity stripe for every three field goal tries. For a Longhorn team that has been equally bad at sending teams to the line, this is excellent news. Key Texas players should be able to avoid foul trouble, while the rapidly-improving Longhorn defense won’t be scuttled by giving up free points.

Meet the Sooners

Junior guard Steven Pledger (No. 2) leads the Sooners with more than 17 points per game. As mentioned above, he’s the only true long-range threat that is seeing significant PT in conference play, where he’s averaging more than 34 minutes per game. He needs very little space to get up a shot, and uses his three-point threat to blow past tight man pressure for layups and open midrange pull-ups.

Pledger’s importance to the Sooner offense was never more apparent than in their ugly loss at Texas Tech on Saturday night. Billy Gillispie and the Red Raiders threw a box-and-one look at Oklahoma, isolating Pledger with the man defense. The junior scored just four points on 2-of-7 shooting, crippling the Oklahoma offense. As a result, the Sooners lost by 18 to a team that had yet to even log a conference win.

With Pledger locked down, the Sooners had to rely on point guard Sam Grooms (No. 1) to facilitate the offense. A transfer from Chipola College in Florida, Grooms is a quick, shifty guard who can penetrate the lane and create open looks for his teammates. The main problem with Grooms’ game is that he is a very spotty shooter, allowing defenses to sag off and limit that driving ability.

In the frontcourt, junior Andrew Fitzgerald (No. 4) provides the Sooners with an excellent inside-out threat. As one of the two tallest players in the starting five, the 6’8″ Fitzgerald is key to OU finding success on the glass. Down low, he still struggles at times with point blank looks, something that was a huge problem for him last year. He does boast an excellent midrange game, though, as he consistently knocks down 15-footers from the baseline and jumpers from the elbow. If the Longhorns use a man defense on the Sooners tonight, Chapman and Wangmene could have their hands full when he faces up outside the lane.

Mississippi State transfer Romero Osby (No. 24) is the other post presence for Oklahoma, and he is a much more traditional forward. Osby leads the team with 7.7 rebounds per game, and prefers to isolate on the block when he gets the ball. He’s much more athletic and quick than other big men, so he can put a quick drop step on his defender and get to the rack with ease. Fortunately, his midrange shot is nowhere near as consistent as Fitzgerald’s, so the Longhorns can limit his effectiveness by forcing him off the block prior to the entry passes.

Sophomore swingman Cameron Clark (No. 21) also provides some length for an undersized OU squad, checking in at 6’6″. As a freshman, he showcased a sweet shot and smooth driving ability, but has yet to really click in his sophomore campaign. Although his field goal percentage and scoring averages have dropped off this season, he still chips in some important rebounds for a team that is often overmatched on the glass.

Off the bench, junior guard Carl Blair (No. 14) gives the Sooners another ball-handler in the backcourt. As a sophomore who transferred from the University of New Orleans, Blair ran the point last season and posted the 31st-best assist rate in all of D-I hoops. As the understudy to Grooms this year, Blair has struggled on the offensive end. While he was once a steady point guard who was also a threat to score, he’s stumbled to just a 25.8% mark from the field this season. With Grooms already taking up the role of facilitator who can’t score, it’s tough to justify both he and Blair being on the court at the same time.

Big man C.J. Washington (No. 5) rounds out the core rotation for OU, but he’s only seeing the court for about 11 minutes per game in league play. Washington’s main role is to give Osby and Fitzgerald a breather, but he’s also called on to step up when they find themselves in foul trouble. If the Longhorns can attack the Sooner bigs and draw some whistles, Washington will be forced to play a bigger role in tonight’s game.

Keys to the game

1) Be aggressive – This has become a mainstay in this section of our game previews, but there’s no question that the Longhorn offense looks better when Myck Kabongo, Sheldon McClellan, and Julien Lewis put the ball on the floor and attack the paint. It not only leads to easy buckets inside, but it opens things up for J’Covan Brown off the ball and puts opposing big men in foul trouble. Against a pretty thin Oklahoma team, drawing a ton of whistles and earning points at the charity stripe is a recipe for success.

2) Dominate the glass – Although the Sooners are undersized by Big 12 standards, they are still one of the 25 best offensive rebounding teams in the country. The Longhorns have typically struggled with giving up second chances to their opponents this year, but did an amazing job keeping K-State off of the offensive glass in the second half of Saturday’s game. The Wildcats are an even better than the Sooners when it comes to reclaiming missed shots, so Texas has proven it is up to the task. If they can keep Oklahoma from extending possessions with offensive boards, the Longhorn defense should be able to shut down the Sooners.

3) Frustrate Pledger – Texas Tech showed how to neutralize OU’s top scorer on Saturday, so you can be sure that the Sooners will be looking to get him going early in this one. If the Longhorns can stick to Pledger and limit his scoring output for a second straight game, it will be tough for OU to find enough points to win. Fitzgerald and Osby can certainly score in bunches, but it’s hard to believe that they can carry their team to victory on their own.

As the Texas Longhorns headed to the locker room at halftime of Saturday afternoon’s game against Kansas State, it appeared that the hopes of a 14th-consecutive NCAA appearance could be circling the drain. The Wildcats had put on a late surge to build a 13-point lead heading into the break, thanks in large part to the fact that the Horns managed just two field goals in the final 16:28 of the half.

The first possession of the second half started off promising, as Clint Chapman blocked a shot and the Wildcats missed a short putback. But then another offensive rebound led to an easy hoop for K-State, and suddenly Texas was in a 15-point second-half hole on a day where they had yet to even manage that many points from the field. Even faced with those daunting odds, the Longhorns stormed back and kept their NCAA hopes alive, powered by a surprise performance from the unlikeliest of sources.

With 16:30 left in the game, Alexis Wangmene threw down a dunk off a missed layup by J’Covan Brown, breaking a 12-minute field goal drought for the Longhorns and bringing the Erwin Center crowd to life. It cut the Kansas State lead to 10 points and kick-started an 11-0 run that put the Longhorns back in the game. Following Wangmene’s dunk, Texas outscored KSU by a 43-20 count the rest of the way, cruising in the final minutes to an incredibly important win.

What looked good

While Wangmene provided the turning point for the Horns, he also chipped in his first career double-double, posting 15 points and 13 boards on the afternoon. His performance went beyond the stats, as his little hustle plays kept Texas in the game during a dismal first half and helped to lock up the game in the second. He added two blocks and a steal, but his active hands on defense disrupted many more plays than that.

The one possession that best exemplified Wangmene’s effort came in the first half when he was sprawled on the floor, stretched across the lane following a missed shot by Texas. Three Wildcats had chances to corral the rebound, but he kept tipping at the ball, knocking it out of their hands. Ultimately, a Kansas State player bobbled the ball out of bounds, giving it back to Texas on the baseline. He had no chance at actually securing the basketball himself, but Wangmene’s hustle forced a mistake by the opponents. That type of heads-up play defined Alexis’ performance on Saturday.

Myck Kabongo had set the tone early for Texas, picking up where he left off in the team’s first meeting at Bramlage Coliseum. The freshman consistently attacked the paint, as K-State’s Angel Rodriguez once again couldn’t keep up with his quick first step. Myck scored seven of Texas’ first 11 points, and added an assist on a nice interior bounce pass for a Wangmene dunk. His impact was short lived, however, as he picked up his second foul midway through the first and spent the rest of the half on the bench.

It took only three minutes of the second half for Kabongo to pick up his third foul, once again leaving the Horns without their point guard. Unlike the first half, the Texas offense remained aggressive with Kabongo off the floor, led by a revitalized Brown. The junior guard scored 15 of his 23 points in the second half, including a pair of buckets on nifty spin moves that froze Kansas State and electrified the crowd.

Brown’s commitment to driving the lane and attacking Kansas State spread to the team, and the Longhorns took advantage of an officiating crew that was calling everything tight. The two teams were called for nine fouls combined in the first four minutes of the game, and as a result both squads were shuffling players thanks to foul trouble. With the Wildcat frontcourt reduced to a platoon situation, the quick, athletic Longhorn guards and wings continually put the ball on the floor and made the defense react, earning easier looks inside and 28 trips to the line in the second half.

The Longhorns also continued their resurgence at the charity stripe, knocking down nearly 73% of their attempts for the game. In the first half, Texas was a questionable 13-of-20 from the line, but improved down the stretch when it mattered most. After making just 63.2% of their attempts in the games against Iowa State, Baylor, and Missouri, the Longhorns have made 75.5% of their free throws during their three-game winning streak.

While the aggressive play helped Texas storm back in the second half, the team’s dominating defensive performance made sure that Kansas State had no chance to stop the comeback. The Longhorns extended their pressure beyond the perimeter, with even Wangmene getting up in the shirt of K-State bigs when they would catch the ball on the arc. The Longhorns forced nine turnovers and held the Wildcats to just 32.3% shooting in the second half, while also shutting out top scorer Rodney McGruder for the final twenty minutes.

Texas also dominated the glass, making sure that their solid defensive possessions weren’t ruined by second chances for Kansas State. Led by Wangmene’s breakout performance, the Longhorns limited the Wildcats to just four offensive boards in the final 19:31 of the game. In tempo-free terms, that gave K-State an offensive rebounding mark of only 21% in crunch time, a far cry from their season average of 41.9%.

What needed work

When a team puts on such an inspiring comeback to save not just a game, but also a season, it can be hard to step back and take a look at what went wrong. Still, there were a few issues for Texas, particularly in the team’s flat first half.

The two first-half fouls by Kabongo were incredibly frustrating for Longhorn fans and coaches alike. The first came on a charge when he pushed the tempo into a trap, while the second was a hold on an inbounds play. While both likely wouldn’t have been called in a game where the refs weren’t working so hard to keep things under control, Kabongo needs to adjust to the situation. The Longhorns need him on the floor, so he can’t be picking up fouls on offense or when the ball isn’t even in play.

Without the freshman point guard on the floor, the Texas offense fizzled in the first half. As has been the case on many occasions this season, the Longhorns stood around, making lackluster cuts and setting weak screens. This team has shown that they can score without having both Brown and Kabongo on the floor, but fail to do it with any consistency. It seems at times like the youngsters just forget what they have to do off the ball to make the offense work.

Fortunately, the halftime adjustments in this game were perfect. The Texas coaching staff apparently said all the right things in the locker room, and the players took it to heart. The Longhorns have made it a habit to dig themselves deep holes in conference play before typically storming back late in the game. For much of the season, that has resulted in close losses. Although this time the team was able to salvage the win, it would be great for the hearts and stomachs of Longhorn Nation if the team could play solid first-half basketball in the future.

The big picture

The win levels Texas’ conference record at 6-6, establishing a tie for fifth with Kansas State. If Texas wants to claim fifth-place at season’s end, they will likely have to do it outright. With the two teams splitting their regular season games, the tiebreaker will come down to who has beaten a team higher in the standings. At the moment, K-State holds the edge by virtue of their home win against Missouri. Even if Texas beats Baylor, there’s little chance that the Bears will jump the Tigers in the standings.

If Texas can take care of business on the road in Oklahoma this week, their chances of finishing all alone in fifth are very good. The Wildcats now embark on a tough three-game stretch against Kansas, Missouri, and Baylor, with the latter two games coming on the road. If K-State can’t come up with some upsets, Texas has an excellent opportunity to make a big move in the standings.

Outside of the conference race, this game was also huge for Texas’ bubble prospects. The Longhorns have a favorable back-half of the league schedule that allows them to build momentum, but they also have a rather weak tournament profile. Texas owns just two wins against the RPI Top 50, with those coming at home against Temple and Iowa State. While the Wildcats will likely finish outside of that group, Top 100 wins are also used by the NCAA Selection Committee, and the Longhorns had yet to record a victory against teams ranked 51st to 100th. Winning games against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech wouldn’t impress anyone, so the Horns had to have this W.

With other bubble teams faltering over the last week, Texas now just needs to win the games it is supposed to. A loss in one of this week’s road games wouldn’t be deadly, but would certainly be damaging. What would be crippling is a sweep in the state of Oklahoma, which would put Texas back on the wrong side of the bubble with work left to do in the final three weeks. While the Horns earned a win they had to have on Saturday, they can’t afford to let their guard down as they hit the road.

Up next: at Oklahoma (13-11 overall, 3-9 Big 12)

The Texas Longhorns have very little margin for error as they come down the stretch of the 2011-12 season. Almost all major bracket projections have them hovering right on the dreaded bubble, so with just seven regular season games left, there’s little time to make rectify a mistake. This afternoon, the Longhorns have a rare chance to make up for an earlier missed opportunity, as they host the Kansas State Wildcats, a team that narrowly beat them earlier this season.

Currently just 2-8 against the RPI Top 100, Texas desperately needs to add some quality wins to the tournament résumé, something they can do with a victory over K-State this afternoon. The Wildcats were ranked 50th in Monday’s edition of the NCAA’s official RPI rankings, so while a win by Texas would likely knock KSU out of the vaunted Top 50, it would still provide an immediate boost to Texas’ tourney profile. Unfortunately, the Horns haven’t had much luck taking care of the Wildcats at home, as K-State owns a three-game winning streak over the Horns in Austin.

Meet the Wildcats

For a full look at the K-State roster, check out LRT’s game preview from the first time these two teams met.

The first game

In the first meeting between these two teams, Kansas State abused Texas inside early, piling up the fouls on Jaylen Bond and Jonathan Holmes. Big man Clint Chapman managed to avoid the whistles and stay on the court, thanks in large part to the team’s switch to a zone defense. Unfortunately, protecting the Texas frontcourt came at a cost, and Kansas State drilled 7-of-12 from long range in the first half. The Wildcats built a lead as large as 15 late in the first, but the Longhorns managed to erase the entire deficit in less than six minutes. At the break, K-State held just a one-point lead.

The second half was a closely contested affair until the final minutes, when the Wildcats once again stretched their advantage out to seven points with only 74 seconds left. The Longhorns took advantage of terrible free-throw shooting by K-State and executed nearly flawlessly on the offensive end. As a result, Texas had the ball and trailed by just two with 20 seconds left on the clock. When Myck Kabongo and J’Covan Brown tried a dribble handoff near midcourt, Martavious Irving stripped the ball, leading to a game-clinching dunk by Rodney McGruder.

Since then…

Freshman Angel Rodriguez has taken Manhattan by storm, starting all six games since facing the Longhorns. His secure hold on the point guard duties means that Will Spradling can now slide over to a shooting guard role, which fits his skill set much better. Rodriguez is now also the team’s most consistent threat to drive, and the offense often looks stagnant when he’s on the bench. Fortunately for the Horns, the freshman guard has a tendency to pick up dumb fouls, so that time on the bench comes more frequently than Coach Frank Martin would like. Texas fans may also remember that Rodriguez had issues keeping Kabongo in check during the first meeting, so the Texas point guard could get things going with penetration this afternoon.

Despite the emergence of Rodriguez, K-State has had a rather bumpy road since knocking off the Horns on January 18th, going 4-2 since that meeting. K-State took full advantage of a pair of games against league doormat Texas Tech, knocking off the Red Raiders by an average of 20.5 points in their two games. Between those two dominant performances were a pair of tough losses, however. The Wildcats were edged out at home by Oklahoma in an ugly game two weeks ago, giving the Sooners a season sweep of the Cats. Just three days later, KSU blew a second-half lead of 14 points, falling victim to a Royce White game-winner with 1.8 seconds to go.

Now, this afternoon’s game is as much a must-win for K-State as it is for Texas. After traveling to Austin, the Wildcats host league co-leader Kansas and then face stiff road tests against Baylor and Missouri. While Ken Pomeroy gives the Cats just a 22% cumulative chance to go winless, they are still the underdogs in each game. Kansas State has a strong tournament profile, but a four-game losing streak in February would certainly hurt seeding and could even put them back in the bubble discussion if other teams surge down the stretch. There is no doubt that they will come out motivated for a win this afternoon.

Keys to the game

1) Stay aggressive – The Longhorns did a great job spreading the floor, moving the ball well, and attacking the paint on Monday night against Texas A&M. It was a welcome change for an offense that had oftentimes degenerated into a team of four players waiting for J’Covan Brown to make something happen. As a result, the Longhorns posted 1.169 points per possession against the Aggies, their best offensive efficiency mark since beating up on an overmatched Nicholls State squad in December.

In their first meeting with the Wildcats, the Horns were also able to get a piece of the paint thanks to aggressive play by Kabongo and Sheldon McClellan. McClellan scored 19 points against Kansas State, his best output in a conference game. He’s also been hot as of late, scoring 32 points in wins over Tech and A&M, so there is hope he can replicate that performance this afternoon.

K-State used a great team effort to shut down Brown in the first game, throwing different defenders at the guard to keep their own players out of foul trouble. They frustrated J’Covan all night and gave him little space, limiting him to just an 8-of-28 line. If the Wildcats are just as effective against Brown tonight, other Longhorns like Kabongo and McClellan will have to be aggressive to keep the offense from stalling out.

2) Force mistakes – The first time these two teams met, the Longhorns forced the Wildcats into miscues on just 16.7% of their possessions. As a result, K-State had their most efficient offensive performance in conference play. Since then, the Cats have been rather careless with the ball, posting turnover marks of at least 22% in five out of six games. With Rodriguez now at the point, K-State has shown more life on the offensive end, but they have also made some crippling mistakes. If the Horns can actually force some turnovers this time around, they might be able to enact some revenge.

3) Limit second chance points – There’s no way to stop Kansas State from grabbing offensive rebounds, but the Longhorns can at least hope to limit the damage caused by those boards. The Wildcats grabbed more than 51% of their offensive rebounding chances against the Longhorns in Manhattan and turned those second chances into 16 points. Texas needs to not only do a much better job on the defensive glass in this one, but also keep the Wildcats from scoring on easy putbacks when they do reclaim the misses.