For the first time in fifteen years, the Texas Longhorns will be sitting at home when the NCAA’s Round of 64 tips off tomorrow morning. Although Texas will not be part of the NCAA tournament, the team is still participating in a post-season event, albeit a much-less prestigious one. Tonight, the Longhorns open play in the College Basketball Invitational, traveling to Houston’s Hofeinz Pavilion.

Like Kentucky in the NIT last night, the Longhorns could not host a first round game in the CBI because their home floor is being used to host NCAA tournament games this weekend. The road trip could grow longer, as even if the Longhorns advance to the quarterfinals of the CBI on Monday, a school spokesman told Mark Rosner that the Frank Erwin Center could not be flipped in time for a home game that night. That means that a win in tonight’s game would slate Texas for another road game on Monday, at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia.

Tonight’s match-up revives a long-dormant Southwest Conference rivalry. Houston and Texas have not faced off since the 2000-01 season, when the Longhorns notched a 71-60 win in Houston. It was the second consecutive win for UT over the Cougars, and gave Texas a narrow 32-31 edge in the series. Tonight’s head coaches, Rick Barnes and James Dickey, have previously met six times. Barnes holds a 6-0 record against his counterpart, with all of the match-ups coming during the final three years of Dickey’s tenure at Texas Tech.

By the numbers

The Cougars run an up-tempo attack, logging an average of 70.4 possessions per game, adjusted for the opposition. That quick pace ranks 20th in Division I, according to Ken Pomeroy.

Houston does not force many turnovers, instead opting to get their transition opportunities after reclaiming opponents’ misses. Cougar opponents cough it up on just 17.9% of their possessions, ranking Houston in the bottom fifth of the country when it comes to forcing miscues. The Cougars are near the median in D-I for reclaiming opponents’ misses, grabbing 31.2% of their opportunities. The average for all Division I teams is 31.8%.

That inability to force turnovers and the average performance on the glass are two reasons why Houston has one of the worst defenses in the country. However, it is a problem with turning back dribble penetration — especially in the second half of many games — that has allowed Cougar opponents to score 1.073 adjusted points per possession. Those struggles with keeping the ball in front of the defense allows opponents to get to the rack and find easy looks inside, leading to the sky-high 49.7% field-goal percentage that Houston opponents have logged inside the arc.

On the other end of the floor, Houston has had much less trouble. The Cougars score an adjusted 1.057 points per possession, currently good for 88th out of 347 Division I teams. Houston has a nice blend of quality shooters who can knock it down from outside and talented forwards who can score in the paint and crash the glass. The Cougs’ field goal percentages both inside (50.2%) and outside (36.9%) the arc put them in the top 20% of Division I teams.

In addition to being able to put the ball in the basket, Houston also benefits from making possessions count. The team coughs it up on just 18.5% of its possessions and reclaims 33.3% of its missed shots. With a nice stable of bigs in the frontcourt, Houston also makes its way to the line fairly often, posting a free-throw rate of 40% on the season. In simpler terms, that means that the Cougars earn two free throws for every five field goals they take.

Meet the Cougars

At the point, juco transfer Tione Womack (No. 14) runs the show. He came to Houston from Hagerstown CC in his home state of Maryland, and took over the starting role a month ago. In the last nine games, he has averaged 28 minutes per game as the starter and dished out four assists per game. Although he’s not very strong at 6’1″ and only 170 pounds, Womack sets the table for his teammates, logging assists on 22.5% of the buckets scored when he is on the court.

The man who previously held the starting gig was 6-foot freshman J.J. Thompson (No. 3). He has seen his minutes drastically reduced with Womack now holding the reins, even failing to see the court in three of those nine contests. In the other six, he averaged 8.2 minutes, pulling his season average down to roughly 21 minutes per game. Turnovers were a major issue for the freshman this year, as he posted a 1.37 assist-to-turnover ratio on the season.

The shooting guard for Houston is hometown product Joseph Young (No. 0), a selection to this year’s All-Conference USA Third Team. Young is deadly from long range, having connected on more than 42% of his attempts this season. He also can knock down the pull-up jumper, and will put the ball on the floor to punish teams that play him too tightly on the perimeter. His 17.9 points per game are tops on the team, and his offensive rating of 124.2 is ranked 33rd out of all D-I players.

On the wing, Danuel House (No. 23) is a tough cover. He’s a very strong 6’7″ with great handles and an ability to slip right through the defense. That slashing ability gets House to the line with regularity, where he knocks down 72% of his attempts. His free-throw rate of 58.8% ranks him 100th in the country at getting to the line, something that will be a concern for a Texas team that frequently sends opponents to the stripe.

The Cougars have a very deep frontcourt filled with bigs who are not only strong, but very athletic, as well. Sophomore forward TaShawn Thomas (No. 35) is the most dangerous of these, as his selection to the First Team All-Conference USA squad would indicate. At 6’8″ and 215 pounds, the Killeen product is a handful inside. He is second on the team with 16.8 points and leads the squad with 9.5 rebounds. That number is inflated a bit by the up-tempo approach of Houston, but his offensive and defensive rebounding rates of 10.5% and 21.9% are still both ranked in the Top 250 for D-I players.

Thomas has a nice repertoire of moves, which could cause issues for a Texas frontcourt that was destroyed by the likes of OU’s Romero Osby and Kansas State’s Thomas Gipson. Thomas can bull his way inside for points, but also can go over either shoulder to hit hook shots and can knock down turnaround jumpers from anywhere near the paint. The Texas bigs will have to stay home and avoid biting on fakes if they hope to limit his damage tonight.

Joining Thomas in the frontcourt is Mikhail McLean (No. 1), another 6’8″ forward for Coach Dickey. McLean is averaging just 13.9 minutes per game, but has seen his role increase over the final few weeks of the season as he works his way back from a broken hand. Although he’s not a focal point of the offense, McLane has started nine of the last ten games and has done a great job reclaiming missed shots.

The Cougars see little dropoff when they go to their reserves in the frontcourt, as senior forward Leon Gibson (No. 15) started 12 games this season. A transfer from Navarro JC, Gibson has the prototypical back-to-the-basket game that allows him to score easily when he gets touches on the block. He is also a beast on the glass, but his limited 16 minutes per game prevent him from being ranked nationally in rebounding percentage.

Another solid reserve for Coach Dickey is swingman Jherrod Stiggers (No. 21), who would draw all of the attention as a long-range sharpshooter, if it weren’t for the presence of Young. Stiggers has knocked down 39.8% of his three-point attempts this season. Texas has the sixth-best defense in the country when it comes to defending the arc, so the Horns must continue that level of dominance if they want to neutralize Stiggers tonight.

Fellow guard Brandon Morris (No. 2) will likely see the court for ten to twelve minutes tonight, but is not a huge offensive threat. His 2.9% steal mark would be ranked nationally if he played more minutes, so the Texas guards cannot afford to be loose with the ball in his vicinity.

Forward J.J. Richardson (No. 55) rounds out the rotation, but his minutes have been limited all season long due to a nagging foot injury. In a road game against crosstown rival Rice, Richardson showed just what kind of a post presence he could be at full strength, putting in 13 points on 5-of-6 shooting from the field. Since then, he has played in just five of the team’s ten games, and he logged only eight total minutes in Houston’s two games at the C-USA tournament.

Keys to the game

1) Stop transition – Although the Longhorns have been wildly inconsistent all season long, the one aspect of their play that has been generally strong is the defensive effort. If Texas can prevent Houston from pushing the pace after missed Longhorn shots, it should be able to force the Cougars to score in the half-court. That will play to Texas’ strengths, while also eliminating easy points for Houston. If the Cougars are not able to pile up fast-break points against the Horns, they will likely find it difficult to advance to the CBI quarterfinals.

2) Attack the paint – Houston has repeatedly struggled to keep the basketball in front of its perimeter defenders, opening up the lane to dribble penetration. If the Longhorns can avoid their bad habit of settling for jump shots, they should be able to frequently slash to the rim and get easy buckets, or at least draw help defense that opens up teammates.

3) Win on the glass – The Cougars are fairly average when it comes to rebounding the basketball, while the Longhorns have had a Jekyll and Hyde history on the two ends of the court. Texas does a great job rebounding its own misses, but lost many close games due to an inability to secure defensive boards in crunch time. If the Longhorns can continue their success on the offensive glass, they will be able to earn extra possessions against a Houston defense that is already very poor.

The real challenge will come on the other end of the floor, where the Cougs have an active frontcourt that can kill Texas with second-chance points. If the Longhorns can mitigate the damage from extra Houston possessions, they might escape Hofheinz to play another day.

Although the Texas Longhorns failed to make the NCAA tournament field for the first time in 15 years, their season is not yet over. Citing sources, the Houston Chronicle’s Joseph Duarte reported that the Longhorns have accepted a bid to the 2013 College Basketball Invitational. Texas will open play at the University of Houston on Wednesday, at 8 P.M. CT. The winner of Wednesday’s game will advance to face the College of Charleston or George Mason in the second round on Monday, March 25th.

The matchup with Houston will renew an old Southwest Conference rivalry that has been dormant since the 2000-01 season. The all-time series is nearly even, with Texas holding a two-game winning streak and a narrow 32-31 overall edge. Texas coach Rick Barnes also has a 6-0 record against Houston’s James Dickey, with all of those games coming in the last three years of Dickey’s tenure at Texas Tech.

Now in its sixth year, the CBI is a 16-team tournament culminating in a best-of-three Championship Series. All games are played at the home arenas of the participating teams, meaning that the Longhorns would be able to host games if they can advance to later rounds. With the Erwin Center home to NCAA tournament games this weekend, Texas had no choice but to open CBI play on the road.

The College Basketball Invitational is produced by the Gazelle Group, a New Jersey-based sports marketing firm. The Gazelle Group also manages exempt November events that the Longhorns frequently play in, such as the 2K Sports Classic, Legends Classic, and CBE Classic.

For Coach Barnes, this post-season bid is his 21st-consecutive and 24th overall in his 26-year career. The 21-year streak includes all four years he spent at Clemson and the final two years of his stint at Providence. It is comprised of 18 NCAA bids and two NIT appearances, in addition to this year’s CBI nod.

Although the CBI bid extended Barnes’ streak of post-season appearances, his personal string of 17-straight NCAA bids was snapped on Sunday. Barnes’ 17-year run was tied with that of Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski for the longest active streak, but Coach K can now lay sole claim to that title. The Blue Devils earned a No. 2 seed in this year’s NCAA tournament, extending Krzyzewski’s streak to 18 years.

Fans will be able to purchase tickets for Wednesday’s game online or by calling the University of Houston box office at 1-877-COUGAR5.

The clash between Texas and Houston is one of four CBI first-round games that will be broadcast live on AXS TV, the cable network owned by Mark Cuban, Ryan Seacrest, and the Creative Artists Agency. In Austin, AXS TV can be found on AT&T U-Verse (Channel 1106) and Grande Communications (880). Satellite customers can also watch the game on DIRECTV (Channel 340) and Dish Network (362).

EDITOR’S NOTE: A previous version of this post did not include potential second round opponents and listed both possible game times.

Last night, the Texas Longhorns took the first and easiest step in their pursuit of an improbable Big 12 title, dispatching No. 10 seed TCU, 70-57. Texas must win the conference tournament to avoid missing the NCAA tournament for the first time in 15 years, which means that the young Horns have to put together four wins in four days. With the first victory under their belt, things now get much tougher for Rick Barnes’ inconsistent bunch.

Awaiting the Horns in the quarterfinals are the experienced Kansas State Wildcats, who beat the Horns by a combined 38 points in the team’s two meetings earlier this year. It has long been said that it’s tough to beat the same team three times in a season, but those prior results offer Texas fans little reason for optimism about tonight’s match-up. Even in the relatively-close 12-point loss to Kansas State in Austin, Texas was out of the game for the entire second half, and trailed by as many as 19 points.

Ken Pomeroy gives the Horns a 27% chance to win, predicting a six-point margin of victory for the ‘Cats. The Longhorns will have to overcome those odds and what will amount to a home crowd for KSU if they want to keep their NCAA dreams alive.

Meet the Wildcats

For an in-depth look at the Kansas State roster and the team’s style of play, check out LRT’s game preview from the first meeting between these two teams.

The first match-up

When Texas and Kansas State first faced off on January 30th, the game was quickly out of reach. The Longhorns had two leads in the first four minutes, but trailed 9-7 at the under-16 media timeout. Texas would never get any closer, falling victim to a brutal stretch of offensive inefficiency. For a span of more than 12 minutes in the first half, Texas managed only eight points, with all of them coming from Sheldon McClellan.

The Longhorns did manage to get some good looks early in the game, but could not make any buckets. With shots not falling, Texas only made things worse by constantly turning it over and giving up easy points to the Wildcats. On the night, Texas ended 27.5% of their possessions with a turnover and allowed KSU to score 33 points off of those miscues. In a lopsided 83-57 loss, those wasted possessions and free points were easily the difference in the game.

Most troubling for Texas fans is that this beatdown came with Rodney McGruder limited due to foul trouble and Will Spradling (No. 55) playing with a broken nose he suffered in the first half. With those two only chipping in 12 points, it was Texas-born big man Thomas Gipson (No. 42) who dominated the game, scoring 17 points and grabbing seven boards in only 21 minutes on the court.

The rematch

Even with Myck Kabongo back in the lineup, things did not get much better for Texas when they hosted Kansas State on February 23rd. The Longhorns failed to challenge the Kansas State shooters all afternoon, allowing the Wildcats to knock down 50% of their 18 three-point attempts.

Texas still managed to find itself down just three points late in the first half, but a disastrous exchange shoved the momentum to the Kansas State sideline before the teams headed to the locker room. With 22 seconds left, it appeared the Wildcats would hold for the last shot. Instead, Javan Felix fouled Angel Rodriguez (No. 13), who knocked down a pair of free throws. Kabongo then turned it over with just two seconds left in the half, and the Wildcats raced down the court for a three from Shane Southwell (No. 1) just before the horn.

Things continued to deteriorate in the second half. The Longhorns took more than four minutes to score a basket, allowing Kansas State to extend its lead out to fifteen points. Texas never recovered, trailing by as many as 19 points midway through the half. The Horns closed the gap for cosmetic purposes, but still dropped the final decision at home, 81-69.

Kabongo led the way for Texas, scoring what was then his career high of 24 points. McClellan came off the bench to score 15 points, rebounding quickly from his benching in the TCU game just five days earlier. Both players were able to score in transition and Kabongo drove to the rack in half-court sets, but otherwise the offense was bogged down.

The Longhorns also again struggled to keep Kansas State from reclaiming missed shots. The Wildcats snagged 41.4% of their offensive rebounding opportunities in Austin, improving upon the impressive 40% mark they had posted in Manhattan. Those extra chances only resulted in seven second-chance points for K-State, but they demoralized the Longhorn defense when it did manage to force a missed shot.

Keys to the game

1) Look for transition opportunities – In both games against Kansas State, the Texas offense had a very difficult time scoring in their half-court sets, but did find some success on the break in Austin. Unfortunately, the Wildcats take good care of the ball, turning it over on only 18.4% of their possessions. That means that transition opportunities for Texas will have to come off of missed K-State shots. Of course, the Horns have had difficulties winning defensive rebounds against the Wildcats, so this could be a very tall order.

2) Communicate and rotate on defense – Kansas State’s offense can look like a well-oiled machine when it is clicking, as the Longhorns discovered when the ‘Cats sliced them up with crisp ball movement in Austin. In addition, Rodriguez has the ability to slash through defenses and pull defenders away from the K-State bigs inside and the shooters waiting on the perimeter. The Longhorns must play sound team defense, communicate, and rotate quickly if they hope to disrupt a Kansas State offense that scored 1.26 points per possession against them in their two earlier meetings.

3) Aggression from the guards and wings – Texas found success in the second half of last night’s game when Kabongo, McClellan, and Julien Lewis started attacking with the bounce and making harder cuts off the ball. As a result, the Horns posted a free-throw rate of 82% against TCU, meaning that they shot more than eight free throws for every ten field goal attempts. Coming on the heels of a 62.7% free-throw rate against Texas Tech, it appears that the normally-stagnant Texas offense is finally making an effort to grind out points at the line.

Combine this recent trend with Kansas State’s penchant for sending opponents to the stripe, and the Longhorns may be able to pile up some points. Even if Texas does not end up drawing many fouls by attacking with the bounce, any sort of aggression will be an improvement. Static possessions with excessive perimeter passing and challenged looks late in the shot clock have unfortunately been the norm for Texas for much of the season. If the ballhandlers can be aggressive, while Lewis and McClellan work hard to get open off the ball, Texas can stay competitive this evening. If not, the Horns will likely be victims of a third K-State beatdown this year.

The Texas Longhorns open play in the Phillips 66 Big 12 Championship with one, straightforward goal: win the whole damned thing. For the Longhorns, anything less than that will mean an end to a 14-year streak of NCAA appearances. And while Texas is hoping to preserve its historic streak, the rest of the program’s history is stacked against it. The Longhorns have never won the Big 12 Championship, despite appearing in the finals on six different occasions.

Even getting to that championship will be extremely difficult, as Texas must win three games in a row to reach that point. Until Saturday’s overtime win at Texas Tech, the Longhorns had not even strung together two consecutive victories in league play. Furthermore, Texas would still have to get past Kansas State and then either Oklahoma State or Baylor, three teams which the Horns posted a 1-5 record against in the regular season.

Of course, the old adage holds that you must take it one game at a time. For Texas, that would be sage advice. Although the Horns open tournament play against last-place TCU, they have to remember that the Horned Frogs have pulled off surprising upsets to earn their two league victories. Earlier this season, TCU shocked the college basketball world with a home win over a Top 5 Kansas team. On Saturday, they wrapped up their regular season by building a massive lead against Oklahoma and then hanging on for the improbable win. If Texas makes the mistake of looking ahead to a possible matchup with Kansas State tomorrow night, the Horns might not even get there.

Meet the Horned Frogs

For an in-depth look at the TCU roster and the team’s style of play, check out LRT’s preview of the first match-up between these two teams.

The first meeting

Texas had to grind it out with TCU in the first game, which saw only 57 possessions on the night. Even with such a slow tempo, the Longhorns were able to build a lead as large as 19 points and won the game by a 17-point final margin. Texas used stifling defense to limit the already-anemic TCU offense to just 0.753 points per possession, while having one of its best shooting nights of the season on the other end.

One reason Texas was able to get so many good looks is that the team made it a point to work the ball inside-out against TCU. Connor Lammert cracked double-digits in points for the first time in his collegiate career, logging 10 on a perfect 5-for-5 shooting night. Since then, the freshman has continued to play with confidence, earning starts in the team’s last two games.

Ioannis Papapetrou also had a solid night against the Horned Frogs, scoring 13 points in his 34 minutes on the court. More importantly, the Greek forward snagged nine boards on a night where the Longhorns performed terribly on the glass. The Longhorns grabbed just 30 rebounds as a team, posting an ugly 26.9% mark on the offensive glass.

For TCU, the bright spots were in the frontcourt, where Connell Crossland (No. 2) continued his surge in conference play. The senior had 12 rebounds, including four on the offensive end. Fellow big man Adrick McKinney (No. 24) led TCU in the scoring department with 13, while also logging eight boards.

The rematch

When the two teams squared off once again on February 19th, Myck Kabongo was back on the court for Texas, and he made an immediate impact. The sophomore point guard scored eight points in the first half and dished out five dimes, as the Longhorns took a 33-25 lead to the locker room.

Texas moved the ball extremely well in the first half, while Kabongo was aggressive with the bounce. The Longhorns could have been even more efficient on offense, if not for a series of poor passes into the paint that resulted in turnovers.

On the other end, the Longhorn defense had a tough time shutting down a TCU team that typically struggles to score. Even though Demarcus Holland did a solid job turning back the penetration of point guard Kyan Anderson (No. 5), the Horned Frog bigs repeatedly found great post position. Cameron Ridley especially struggled to force McKinney off the block, and he played only six minutes as a result. Even with that interior success, TCU did not limit its scoring to the paint, as Garlon Green repeatedly knocked down midrange jumpers.

In the second half, TCU coach Trent Johnson made adjustments to slow down the Horns, most notably tabbing Nate Butler Lind (No. 21) to guard Kabongo. While he is perhaps a step slower than Anderson, Butler Lind’s extra length made it tougher for Kabongo to score, even when the Texas point guard was able to drive the lane.

The Longhorns briefly experimented with a zone in the second half, but Anderson quickly took advantage without Holland in his shirt. Anderson penetrated the zone and hit his teammates in good position as the defense collapsed, logging six assists in the second half alone. He also chalked up some of those dimes by being alert after missed Texas shots, judiciously picking the spots where he could push the tempo for transition points. His leadership allowed the Horned Frogs to tie the game with just under nine minutes to go, and he kept them within a few buckets of Texas down the stretch.

In the end, it was clutch plays from Connor Lammert and Holland that iced the game, keeping Texas just ahead of a determined TCU squad. After a pass by Kabongo from the opposite three-point line, Lammert made an acrobatic, backwards layup in transition as he was fouled, and then he converted the free throw. A few possessions later, Holland drilled a three from the corner as the shot clock neared zero. Thanks to those timely buckets, the Longhorns escaped Daniel-Meyer Coliseum with a 68-59 win, their first true road win of the season.

Keys to the game

1) Clean up the glass – Although TCU is just an average rebounding team, the Longhorns had trouble keeping them away from the offensive boards in both games. Texas allowed the Horned Frogs to reclaim 37.8% of their misses in the first meeting between the two teams and 45.2% of their misses in the second game. The Horned Frogs do not shoot the basketball well and rely mostly on scoring from their bigs in the post. If the Horns wants to avoid the upset tonight, they have to take advantage of that offensive weakness by limiting second and third chances once they have forced missed shots.

2) Make the bigs uncomfortable – With TCU’s preference for dumping it into the post, Texas has to make it a point to put the Horned Frog bigs in uncomfortable positions. (No, not the back of a Volkswagen.) The Longhorns can force TCU to make entry passes further up the lane or perhaps choose to immediately double on the catch near the block. With TCU hitting less than 31% of their threes on the season, the risk of doubling down is diminished greatly.

No matter which approach is taken, the Horns have to focus on making things tough for McKinney and Devonta Abron (No. 23). The Longhorns also need to make sure that their interior fouls count, limiting the number of and-one opportunities they concede. At the line, TCU is the eighth-worst team out of 347 in the country, making less than 60% of their attempts. If the Horns are beat in the paint, they must make the Horned Frog bigs earn both of the points, not give up the two and still allow a chance for the bonus.

3) Aggression from the guards – TCU has a very stout defense that packs it in tight and forces opponents to beat them with outside and midrange shooting. In the last meeting, Kabongo showed how easily dribble penetration can make that TCU defense break down. The adjustment to put Butler Lind on Kabongo slowed down his attack, and it also slowed down the Horns as a result.

If the Texas point guard is unable to mix things up with the bounce, Holland, Sheldon McClellan, and Julien Lewis will need to pick up the slack and drive from the wings and along the baseline. Otherwise, the Longhorns will be forced to win this game with their jump shots, and those have been very inconsistent all season long.

The worst regular season for the Texas basketball program in nearly two decades comes to its quiet end on the South Plains this afternoon as the Longhorns take on Texas Tech. This year, Texas suffered its worst start in conference play since the 1970’s, posted its first losing record in conference since Tom Penders’ final season in 1997-98, and will need a miracle run at the Big 12 Championship in Kansas City to avoid missing out on the NCAA tournament for the first time in 15 years.

With no hopes for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament, Texas is playing only for seeding in the Big 12 Championship. If West Virginia loses at home to Iowa State this afternoon, the Longhorns can lock up a No. 7 seed in the conference tournament with a win over Texas Tech. That would set up a game against TCU on Wednesday in Kansas City, with the winner advancing to face the No. 2 seed, which will be Kansas or Kansas State. If the Mountaineers defeat Iowa State this afternoon, the Longhorns will be playing for nothing but pride when they tip off in Lubbock.

Meet the Red Raiders

For an in-depth look at the Texas Tech roster and the team’s tendencies, check out LRT’s game preview from the first meeting between these two teams.

The first match-up

The Longhorns entered their first game against Texas Tech with an 0-5 Big 12 record and in desperate need of a win. The opening minutes of the game did little to calm the fears of Longhorn fans, as the team scored just 10 points in the first eight minutes, while point guard Javan Felix picked up two fouls.

With Felix on the bench, Ioannis Papapetrou took over primary ballhandling duties and Demarcus Holland stepped up. Texas closed out the half with a 25-14 push, building a lead as large as 13 late in the first half. Holland played 17 of the first 20 minutes, scoring nine points with aggressive drives and a triple. His three steals also flustered Josh Gray (No. 5) and the Tech offense, which coughed it up nine other times in the first half.

In the second, Texas extended its lead to as many as 16 points in the first few minutes. Tech refused to fold, however, slicing the lead to only eight points with just under eight minutes to play. After wasting late leads against USC, UCLA, Kansas, and West Virginia, it looked like the Horns might once again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Instead, Papapetrou fueled a late-game surge, hitting a trey before assisting on three straight buckets. The Longhorns outscored Tech 17-6 over the next five minutes and cruised to a 73-57 win, their first victory in Big 12 play.

Sophomore guard Julien Lewis led Texas with 18 points, despite having a rough 2-for-7 performance behind the arc. The Longhorns also received a strong effort from freshman Cameron Ridley, who chipped in six points and ripped down ten rebounds. Texas made it a point to get their big man the ball, and it led not only to points in the paint, but opportunities for other Horns.

Since then…

The loss to Texas was the first in a nine-game skid for the Red Raiders, who finally broke out of the funk last Saturday with a home victory over TCU. Porous defense was the culprit in all of the losses, with the Red Raiders allowing 1.18 points per possession during the losing streak. Their best defensive effort came in a narrow road loss to West Virginia, where they still allowed the anemic Mountaineer offense to put in 1.015 points per possession.

Big man Dejan Kravic (No. 11) has continued to be inconsistent for Coach Walker, performing admirably in early February losses to West Virginia and Kansas State before going into a terrible slump. In Monday’s loss at Kansas, Kravic hit his absolute low, posting an offensive rating of five.

To put that performance into perspective, we can compare it to the day that Northern Illinois tied an NCAA record with four points in one half and went on to score 25 total. The Huskies had only one player who posted a single-digit offensive rating, and that was bench man Akeem Springs, who somehow managed an ORtg of just one.

It’s clear that Texas Tech is much better when Kravic is able to use his throwback game to earn points in the paint. Unfortunately, he has had little success doing that in conference play. If he continues to struggle this afternoon, the Red Raiders will likely find it tough to close out their season on a positive note.

At the point, freshman Gray has put up some solid performances down the stretch, but he is still struggling with decision making. His speed is very tough to defend and he can get to the rim with ease, but his lack of a consistent outside shot allows opponents to sag off. When opponents hunker down and take away his driving ability, Gray will often make a questionable pass inside that results in a turnover.

Even with those weaknesses, Gray scored 46 total points in back-to-back losses to Oklahoma and Iowa State. He also dished out six dimes against TCU, with many of those coming after he had sliced up the Horn Frogs off the bounce. The freshman clearly has a bright future in the Big 12, but needs to make better passing decisions from the perimeter and he will have to work on finishing at the rim and developing an outside shot over the summer.

Keys to the game

1) Come out with intensity – United Spirit Arena was once a dangerous road trip in the Big 12, as Kansas repeatedly found out in the late 2000’s. Unfortunately, numerous coaching changes and abysmal seasons have killed the crowd support and turned the arena into an empty cavern. That provides little energy for games, and it can make it difficult for visiting teams to show up to play. Kansas and Kansas State both struggled to put Tech away until late in their visits to Lubbock this season, while Iowa State actually fell victim to the Red Raiders in mid-January.

With the Longhorns having very little to play for, they will have to manufacture their own energy this afternoon. Although the team could be playing for a No. 7 seed in the Big 12 Championship, that doesn’t provide too much motivation. If they come out flat like they have on numerous occasions this season, the Horns will certainly let Tech hang around and be in a position to pull off an upset.

2) Force mistakes – In the first meeting, Texas forced Tech into 19 turnovers and converted that into 22 points. That was no anomaly, as the Red Raiders have struggled controlling the ball all year. Their turnover rate of 21.3% is one of the 100 worst marks in D-I hoops, and they actually have coughed it up slightly more against Big 12 opponents, with 21.5% of their possessions ending in a miscue.

With Holland now in the starting five, the Longhorns will get even more minutes out of a guy who gave the Red Raiders fits in the first game. If they can get a repeat performance from him and force Tech to waste their possessions, the Horns should be able to finish the regular season with a win.

3) Clean up defensive glass – Even though Texas won the first game comfortably, their effort on the defensive glass left a lot to be desired. The Horns allowed Tech to reclaim 48.6% of their missed shots, and the Red Raiders turned all of those second chances into 17 extra points. The Longhorns had particular trouble with Jordan Tolbert (No. 32), who grabbed 13 boards on the night, with eight of those coming on the offensive end. If the Longhorns allow that many offensive rebounds in this game, a Tech offense that typically struggles to score will suddenly become much more dangerous.