It’s been a tragic fall for the Texas Longhorns this year. From the school’s first No. 1 ranking back in January, to its nearly-unprecedented slide out of the Top 25, the journey to the bottom has been long and arduous. Texas lost nine of its last sixteen games this season, including a three-game sweep at the hands of the Baylor Bears, a team the Horns had beaten 24 consecutive times prior to March of 2009.

But all of that means nothing in the grand scheme of things. That’s because the champion of NCAA men’s basketball is crowned at the end of a tournament. A tournament that levels the playing field and makes the last three weekends of the year the most important of the entire season. From 16-seed Vermont to overall No. 1 seed Kansas, every team has championship dreams. All it takes is six straight wins.

While the chances are slim for the Longhorns to put together a run like that, there’s certainly no denying that this team has the talent to at least be in the conversation. So, for the most optimistic members of the burnt-orange faithful, this could be seen as the first step in a larger journey. It’s win-and-advance, time, my friends. And so, with that in mind, our keys to earning that win……and advancing.

1) Maintain composure – The Longhorns are facing a Wake Forest team that has an excellent defense, particularly on the interior. Big man Chas McFarland and sophomore center Tony Woods are well-disciplined post defenders who play tall without leaving their feet. The Longhorns will have a hard time scoring inside, especially if they are relying on whistles to bail them out on poorly-chosen shots inside.

In the past, Texas has often become frustrated against good interior defenses and settled for a ton of outside shots, most of which were misses. The Longhorns must attack the inside with dribble penetration and good ball movement, and can not simply wait on the perimeter. If Justin Mason, J’Covan Brown, and Jordan Hamilton can force the Wake defense to react, and then actually make the extra pass, things should open up inside. Settle for outside shots, however, and the Longhorns will be playing right into the hands of the Deacs.

2) Pressure the ball – Senior guard Ishmael “Ish” Smith is not an exceptionally quick guard, but he’s a guy who confuses defenses with his hesitation dribble. His strength lies in pull-up jumpers and floaters, which is especially bizarre when you consider that he’s just a 50% free-throw shooter. Smith isn’t a big guy who finishes strong at the rim, so if he manages to force his way inside, Texas must make him earn the points. In addition, he loves to leave the ball just hanging in the air on his hesitation moves, so if the Longhorns defense has active hands, it could equal extra possessions and points.

That extra pressure shouldn’t be exclusively applied to Smith, however, as Wake Forest turns it over on more than 21% of their possessions. If the Longhorns can force Wake Forest into mistakes, it not only limits the Deac’s opportunities to score, but it ties in nicely with our first key of the game. The best way to score against a well-coached defense is to get it in the bucket before they even set up. If Texas can get down the court and score in transition before Wake sets up the half-court D, it will greatly increase the chances of a Longhorn win.

3) Limit the boards – Wake’s offensive efficiency is in the top third of the nation, but their field goal percentage is near the bottom. The reason behind the disparity? Strong offensive rebounding allows the Demon Deacons a ton of extra possessions, which typically allows them miss a ton of easy looks before finally scoring on a tip. (Sound familiar, Texas fans?) If the Longhorns can secure the defensive rebounds, it will force Wake to be much, much more efficient with the basketball.

One final stat

As we head to the arena, here is one final stat to chew on during the night sessions. The Longhorns are one of just three teams in this year’s NCAA tournament to have won a first-round game in each of the last four seasons. When things get dicey tonight, as they likely will, keep that fact in mind. And if that stat doesn’t give you confidence, just watch this video of McFarland getting tackled by a Clemson student…

As always, you can follow our Twitter updates from the arena during tonight’s games. We’ll be back in the A.M. with a post-game…and hopefully a look ahead to a second-round opponent.

This is the third match-up this year between the Bears and Longhorns, so fans should be well-acquainted with what both teams bring to the table. If not, you’ll want to revisit the game preview from the first meeting. If you are familiar with the Bears, let’s jump right into what will matter when the game tips in roughly three hours.

1) Who will win the turnover battle? – It seems like quite a simple key to the game, but turnovers have truly been the difference in the series this season. At the Frank Erwin Center, Texas played a fairly ugly game that they would have won if not for a putback just milliseconds before the buzzer. The reason the Longhorns were still in that position was that the Bears coughed it up 20 times on the afternoon.

On Saturday, however, Baylor was the perfect example of steady ball control. While Texas had 18 turnovers and gave up what seemed like 108 fast break points, the Bears had just eight turnovers of their own. These are two very good teams with very little differential in talent. Something as glaring as a -10 turnover margin will certainly spell doom for the Longhorns tonight.

2) Can the Texas frontcourt score against Baylor? – The lengthy, athletic Baylor defense makes it very, very difficult for opponents to score. With Dexter Pittman often struggling to finish at the rim and with the lack of an explosive ballhandler in the backcourt, the Longhorns could find it very difficult to pile up the points tonight. Fortunately, Gary Johnson has had a string of great games down the stretch, including a 25-point, 8-rebound performance against Baylor on Saturday.

Whether it’s Pittman, Johnson, or another workmanlike night from Damion James, the Longhorns simply must score inside against Baylor’s solid 2-3 zone. If they fail to do so and rely on three-pointers and long-range Js, chance are slim that the Horns can survive to the semifinals.

3) Do the Longhorns know how to prevent an alley-oop? – As facetious as this question is, it certainly needs to be asked. Texas conceded approximately 72 rim-rattling alley-oops to Baylor on Saturday, and even allowed two more against the Cyclones last night. Quincy Acy — a man whose only reliable shots are dunks and layups — scored 24 points for Baylor in their win on Saturday. There is almost no chance for Texas to win if they give up that many easy buckets again tonight.

Post-game react will be headed your way in the morning, but for in-game updates from tonight’s quarterfinals, you can follow LRT on Twitter.

Not a ton of time to write about last night’s win, as the quarterfinals tip off in a little over an hour. With that time constraint in mind, let’s quickly hit some of our key thoughts about last night’s game.

1) Damion James and Dexter Pittman looked like leaders – While Texas struggled to put the Cyclones away for the entire ballgame, Damion James tried his hardest to do it single-handedly. Midway through the second half, he became a human vacuum, grabbing practically every board in sight. When Iowa State went over seven minutes without a single field goal, a huge cause of their offensive ineptitude was James’ dominance on the glass. The Cyclones were simply unable to get second chances.

Meanwhile, Dexter Pittman finally showed some swagger as the Longhorns started to put it together. While Big Pitt still had some early issues with making weak moves to the basket that resulted in missed shots, his 19 minutes on the court were extremely efficient. Pittman scored 16 points and grabbed five boards on the night. Having a confident Dexter in the middle instead of a frustrated one makes a huge difference in not only the team’s performance, but also its entire demeanor.

2) Gary Johnson doesn’t have to be the sixth man – There was some theorizing that Gary Johnson didn’t work his way into the starting lineup very often this season because he just felt more comfortable coming off the bench. But after posting a 15/10 double-double against the Cyclones, Johnson seems right at home as a part of the starting five. The junior forward played 39 minutes, including the entire first half. With Pittman’s performance still unpredictable from night to night, Gary’s emergence as a breakout star has been the most exciting storyline down the stretch.

3) J’Covan Brown is back in the doghouse – When Justin Mason picked up his second foul just six-and-a-half minutes into the game, Jai Lucas hopped off the bench to take over point guard duties. Lucas responded well, truly playing the role of bus driver. He didn’t do anything flashy, but didn’t make any mistakes either. He simply made sure the team ended up where it needed to be.

What’s worthy of a raised eyebrow, however, is the fact that J’Covan Brown stayed on the bench until the final three minutes of the half. Brown certainly struggled against Baylor on Saturday — but honestly, which Longhorns didn’t? — and it seems that put him firmly back in Rick Barnes’ doghouse.

While Lucas has shown his ability to be a serviceable point, he lacks the slashing ability that Brown can bring to the table. Texas settled for a lot of threes and long jumpers, something that could have been avoided if there was a guard on the floor with strong driving ability. And, of course, there’s no reason that both Lucas and Brown couldn’t have been on the floor at the same time.

Texas moves on to face Baylor in the quarterfinals tonight. The Longhorns are hoping to avoid a third loss to the Bears this season, and a fourth consecutive one. We’ll be back with a brief game preview in between the afternoon and evening sessions. In the meantime, keep up with all the action from the Sprint Center by following the LRT Twitter.

So this is the actual March Madness. Trying to uphold your “real world” responsibilities somewhere in between three-day jaunts to Oregon, day trips to Waco, and five-day vacations in Kansas City, all while desperately searching for the time to actually write about those trips and college basketball.

I’m sure I’ll be faced with the same dilemma early next week, as another few days of travel to the NCAA Tournament will necessitate cramming as many hours as possible into an incredibly short workweek. And I believe that nature dictates that at some point I have to try to sleep. Ack! (Yes, I just quoted the comic strip Cathy. You’re going to have to deal with it.)

I’m not sure when the time will actually present itself in the next 40 hours that allows me to sit down and write my thoughts on that disaster at the Ferrell Center, but considering the Longhorns and Bears could meet again in Thursday’s quarterfinals, it’s something that must be done. If post-game thoughts don’t make their way to this fine website sometime this afternoon, look for it in the waning hours of Tuesday night before we hit the road for KC. For now, it’s off again to the McJob and a litany of TPS reports.

As Big 12 play heads into its final day, there is absolutely nothing that is settled. Outside of four seeds — No. 1 Kansas, No. 7 Oklahoma State, No. 11 Iowa State, and No. 12 Nebraska — everything is up for grabs on the last day of the regular season. For the Longhorns, there still remains the possibility of the No. 4 seed and the first-round bye that goes with it. Of course, a loss this afternoon means that Texas is locked into the 6-seed and will open the tournament with Iowa State late on Wednesday night.

If Texas does happen to beat Baylor this afternoon, things get a little more interesting. If the Longhorns win and the Aggies lose to the Sooners in a game that is currently underway, Texas would ascend to the No. 4 seed, with Baylor and A&M following up in 5th and 6th. If Texas wins, but the Aggies also win, the Longhorns clinch the No. 5 seed and Baylor takes No. 6.

Of course, none of that matters if the Longhorns lose today, so the team must build on their strong showing in Monday night’s win over Oklahoma. Unfortunately, Baylor and their imposing frontcourt provide a very big challenge for the Longhorns to overcome in pursuit of that goal. If you’re not familiar with the Bears or their style of play, you’ll want to check out our brief preview from the first time these two teams met.

Despite horrid free throw shooting, Texas was within milliseconds of a victory over the Bears in that game. But after Ekpe Udoh airballed the game-winning three-point attempt, an Anthony Jones putback with 0.3 seconds on the clock sent the game into overtime. Baylor pulled ahead in the extra five minutes, and escaped with a three-point win as Avery Bradley‘s game-tying attempt clanged off the iron at the buzzer.

Check back Sunday evening for post-game reaction, or follow us on Twitter for in-game updates from the Ferrell Center.