The worst regular season for the Texas basketball program in nearly two decades comes to its quiet end on the South Plains this afternoon as the Longhorns take on Texas Tech. This year, Texas suffered its worst start in conference play since the 1970’s, posted its first losing record in conference since Tom Penders’ final season in 1997-98, and will need a miracle run at the Big 12 Championship in Kansas City to avoid missing out on the NCAA tournament for the first time in 15 years.

With no hopes for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament, Texas is playing only for seeding in the Big 12 Championship. If West Virginia loses at home to Iowa State this afternoon, the Longhorns can lock up a No. 7 seed in the conference tournament with a win over Texas Tech. That would set up a game against TCU on Wednesday in Kansas City, with the winner advancing to face the No. 2 seed, which will be Kansas or Kansas State. If the Mountaineers defeat Iowa State this afternoon, the Longhorns will be playing for nothing but pride when they tip off in Lubbock.

Meet the Red Raiders

For an in-depth look at the Texas Tech roster and the team’s tendencies, check out LRT’s game preview from the first meeting between these two teams.

The first match-up

The Longhorns entered their first game against Texas Tech with an 0-5 Big 12 record and in desperate need of a win. The opening minutes of the game did little to calm the fears of Longhorn fans, as the team scored just 10 points in the first eight minutes, while point guard Javan Felix picked up two fouls.

With Felix on the bench, Ioannis Papapetrou took over primary ballhandling duties and Demarcus Holland stepped up. Texas closed out the half with a 25-14 push, building a lead as large as 13 late in the first half. Holland played 17 of the first 20 minutes, scoring nine points with aggressive drives and a triple. His three steals also flustered Josh Gray (No. 5) and the Tech offense, which coughed it up nine other times in the first half.

In the second, Texas extended its lead to as many as 16 points in the first few minutes. Tech refused to fold, however, slicing the lead to only eight points with just under eight minutes to play. After wasting late leads against USC, UCLA, Kansas, and West Virginia, it looked like the Horns might once again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Instead, Papapetrou fueled a late-game surge, hitting a trey before assisting on three straight buckets. The Longhorns outscored Tech 17-6 over the next five minutes and cruised to a 73-57 win, their first victory in Big 12 play.

Sophomore guard Julien Lewis led Texas with 18 points, despite having a rough 2-for-7 performance behind the arc. The Longhorns also received a strong effort from freshman Cameron Ridley, who chipped in six points and ripped down ten rebounds. Texas made it a point to get their big man the ball, and it led not only to points in the paint, but opportunities for other Horns.

Since then…

The loss to Texas was the first in a nine-game skid for the Red Raiders, who finally broke out of the funk last Saturday with a home victory over TCU. Porous defense was the culprit in all of the losses, with the Red Raiders allowing 1.18 points per possession during the losing streak. Their best defensive effort came in a narrow road loss to West Virginia, where they still allowed the anemic Mountaineer offense to put in 1.015 points per possession.

Big man Dejan Kravic (No. 11) has continued to be inconsistent for Coach Walker, performing admirably in early February losses to West Virginia and Kansas State before going into a terrible slump. In Monday’s loss at Kansas, Kravic hit his absolute low, posting an offensive rating of five.

To put that performance into perspective, we can compare it to the day that Northern Illinois tied an NCAA record with four points in one half and went on to score 25 total. The Huskies had only one player who posted a single-digit offensive rating, and that was bench man Akeem Springs, who somehow managed an ORtg of just one.

It’s clear that Texas Tech is much better when Kravic is able to use his throwback game to earn points in the paint. Unfortunately, he has had little success doing that in conference play. If he continues to struggle this afternoon, the Red Raiders will likely find it tough to close out their season on a positive note.

At the point, freshman Gray has put up some solid performances down the stretch, but he is still struggling with decision making. His speed is very tough to defend and he can get to the rim with ease, but his lack of a consistent outside shot allows opponents to sag off. When opponents hunker down and take away his driving ability, Gray will often make a questionable pass inside that results in a turnover.

Even with those weaknesses, Gray scored 46 total points in back-to-back losses to Oklahoma and Iowa State. He also dished out six dimes against TCU, with many of those coming after he had sliced up the Horn Frogs off the bounce. The freshman clearly has a bright future in the Big 12, but needs to make better passing decisions from the perimeter and he will have to work on finishing at the rim and developing an outside shot over the summer.

Keys to the game

1) Come out with intensity – United Spirit Arena was once a dangerous road trip in the Big 12, as Kansas repeatedly found out in the late 2000’s. Unfortunately, numerous coaching changes and abysmal seasons have killed the crowd support and turned the arena into an empty cavern. That provides little energy for games, and it can make it difficult for visiting teams to show up to play. Kansas and Kansas State both struggled to put Tech away until late in their visits to Lubbock this season, while Iowa State actually fell victim to the Red Raiders in mid-January.

With the Longhorns having very little to play for, they will have to manufacture their own energy this afternoon. Although the team could be playing for a No. 7 seed in the Big 12 Championship, that doesn’t provide too much motivation. If they come out flat like they have on numerous occasions this season, the Horns will certainly let Tech hang around and be in a position to pull off an upset.

2) Force mistakes – In the first meeting, Texas forced Tech into 19 turnovers and converted that into 22 points. That was no anomaly, as the Red Raiders have struggled controlling the ball all year. Their turnover rate of 21.3% is one of the 100 worst marks in D-I hoops, and they actually have coughed it up slightly more against Big 12 opponents, with 21.5% of their possessions ending in a miscue.

With Holland now in the starting five, the Longhorns will get even more minutes out of a guy who gave the Red Raiders fits in the first game. If they can get a repeat performance from him and force Tech to waste their possessions, the Horns should be able to finish the regular season with a win.

3) Clean up defensive glass – Even though Texas won the first game comfortably, their effort on the defensive glass left a lot to be desired. The Horns allowed Tech to reclaim 48.6% of their missed shots, and the Red Raiders turned all of those second chances into 17 extra points. The Longhorns had particular trouble with Jordan Tolbert (No. 32), who grabbed 13 boards on the night, with eight of those coming on the offensive end. If the Longhorns allow that many offensive rebounds in this game, a Tech offense that typically struggles to score will suddenly become much more dangerous.

For forty minutes on Monday night, the young, beleaguered Texas Longhorns finally looked like a team. Role players made key contributions, stars stepped up to make huge buckets, and the squad that had so often folded under pressure actually responded to adversity with poise and composure. The Longhorns turned back the Bears and their comeback bid at every opportunity, holding on for a 79-70 win in the final home game of the season.

The loss was especially damaging to Baylor, which entered the game as one of the “First Four Out” in Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracket Math update. It was the fifth defeat in the last six games for the Bears, and the eighth loss in the team’s last 11 contests. After also squandering an opportunity for a résumé-building win against Kansas State two days ago, Baylor now must put all of its eggs in the “upset Kansas” basket on Saturday. Even with a victory there, the Bears still would likely need a solid win over the Big 12’s No. 3 seed in the conference tournament next Thursday to truly feel comfortable.

As damaging as the loss was for Baylor, it meant very little in the grand scheme of things for Texas. The Longhorns now have a better chance to claim the No. 7 seed in the league tournament, but will still need assistance from Oklahoma and Iowa State, who both play West Virginia over the next four days. Outside of helping the Longhorns perhaps earn a marginally better draw for a possible four-wins-in-four days miracle run to the NCAAs, the victory had no tangible big-picture implications.

Still, there was so much to be excited about after watching the Longhorns earn a tough win tonight. Myck Kabongo bounced back quickly from his rough game in Stillwater, scoring 19 points while also leading the team with six boards and eight assists. Sheldon McClellan also turned in a big performance, scoring 23 points just two days after seeing the court for only seven minutes in the Saturday loss to Oklahoma State.

Coming off the bench, Cameron Ridley showed heart and hustle, never more apparent than in a huge play late in the game where he was falling out of bounds and tapped a loose rebound to the corner, where Ioannis Papapetrou knocked down the triple to stifle a Baylor rally. That big shot was one of many clutch plays by Papi, who was aggressive with the bounce and steady behind the arc en route to a highly-efficient 18 points on 7-of-13 shooting. Even Prince Ibeh made key contributions, coming up with two blocks and three important boards.

The Longhorns established their new season high for offensive efficiency, scoring 1.241 points per possession. It was the third time in the team’s last five games that the offense cracked the 1.2 mark, and it was a vast improvement over the even 1.0 points per possession that they scored against Baylor in Waco on January 5th.

Texas also made a huge turnaround on the glass, where the team limited the Bears to reclaiming just 30.6% of their offensive rebounding chances. In the earlier loss to Baylor, Texas gave up 39.1% of those opportunities. The Longhorns also kept the Bears from getting to the line, slashing their defensive free-throw rate from an astronomical 70.3% in the loss to just 38.6% in Monday’s win.

But even with the big plays and solid performances up and down the lineup, Texas’ win over Baylor still left behind a feeling of sadness. Since the return of Kabongo, the Longhorns have pulled off wins over Oklahoma, Iowa State, and Baylor, teams ranked fourth through sixth in the league. Although it’s an incredibly small sample size, those results and the jolt Kabongo has provided the offense make it seem like these Horns could have easily been in the middle of the Big 12 standings had he played all year.

With that in mind, it’s not a stretch to imagine that the full-strength Horns could have won one of the games against West Virginia, if not both. The road loss at Oklahoma was close enough that you can’t help but wonder if that outcome would have changed, too. Heck, the Longhorns forced Kansas into enough second-half miscues that the Jayhawks were on the ropes in Austin, even without Kabongo. Take a step further back, into the non-conference slate, and you can easily picture Texas hanging on against UCLA and hopefully avoiding the detestable loss to Chaminade.

If you hypothesize that Kabongo’s presence flips a few of these games to the win column, you can’t magically create an amazing season, but you do start to add up enough victories to be able to imagine Texas as a bubble team. It seems that every year, the teams filling the bottom of the bracket have résumés that are even more odious than the ones in the previous year. This season has been no exception, with Ole Miss was still only five slots out of Lunardi’s bracket after losing at home to a 7-20 Mississippi State team — the very same Mississippi State team that lost at home to Vanderbilt by 41 points just a week earlier.

There’s no way to know what impact Kabongo would have actually had on the games earlier in the season. Some of the close losses could very well have remained losses even with his leadership. Even with those wins, Texas’ horribly weak non-conference SOS might have kept it out of the NCAA field. The Longhorns’ inability to put together road and neutral-site wins against quality competition might have also left them on the wrong side of the bubble. Unfortunately, the sad fact of the matter is that the NCAA didn’t ever give this team or its fans a chance to find out.

ESPN’s Jay Bilas was the most outspoken critic of the NCAA’s decision to suspend Kabongo, a ban that was reduced to 23 games after initially being set for the full season. But even prior to this particular decision, numerous analysts have been ripping the agency’s enforcement arm for the last few years. Recent scandals surrounding the Shabazz Muhammad and Miami investigations have put more egg on the face of the NCAA, which prodded the league into investigating itself in the miraculous time span of two weeks.

Should Kabongo have been forthcoming with UT compliance officials from the start? Absolutely. But as Bilas and others have reminded us, these 18- to 22-year old kids are thrown into frightening situations where they are questioned without any counsel. These are kids who are playing for no money, only a college education and dreams of making it as a professional athlete. Asking them to handle the stress of a huge institution scrutinizing their possible transgressions is tough enough without also trying to use them as examples to future scallywags when they try to massage the truth in an effort to save face.

As Texas beat writer Mike Finger pointed out this weekend, the Longhorns’ string of 14 consecutive NCAA appearances will likely end because of a $475 plane ride. Kabongo, a kid who was worried about jeopardizing future in which he could make millions, was scared enough to lie about a measly 475 dollars because he might have done something deemed illegal in the NCAA’s arcane rulebook.

It is no secret in the sports world that the NCAA model is a system that is broken in so many different places, it is impossible to even know where to start. There are the issues with enforcement, the gulf between the haves and have-nots, the constant shifting of realignment’s tectonic plates, the debate on pay-for-play…the list never ends. Kabongo’s case is not unique, his problem is far from the biggest one facing college sports, and Texas is certainly not a persecuted victim. But at some point, all of the off-the-court problems, scandals, and distractions take us away from enjoying the game that we all love, the game that brings us all together for five fabulous months every year. When investigations and sanctions earn as many headlines as the contests themselves, some of the magic of college hoops is stripped away.

These are the debates and issues that dominated my thoughts as I watched my 250th consecutive Texas basketball game on Monday. On a night that should have felt like some sort of grand closure to my seven-year journey, a night I should have been swept up in the drama of a back-and-forth game, all I could focus on was how sad it was that none of the effort Texas was putting forth would mean anything. As hard as the Longhorns played and as resilient as they were for forty minutes tonight, nothing that happened between the lines would actually matter. A season that could have been filled with suspense and bubble-sweating and résumé-dissecting and Championship Week pressure was simply over before it even began. Because a college kid made one mistake and compounded it with another, 13 other guys were simply playing for fun from November to March.

There is still the slim chance that Texas could get hot in Kansas City and play its way right in to the NCAAs. The Longhorns had opportunities to prove their worth before Kabongo’s return, and they still have one more week to do the improbable. But after seeing what the Longhorns were capable of with their full roster, it’s a shame Texas fans didn’t get to experience the highs and lows of living on the bubble in February and March. In a thrilling year of college basketball that loudly and undeniably refuted the New York Times’ declaration that the regular season was irrelevant, the Longhorns and their fans had to suffer through a season that never truly mattered.

When the Big 12 released its conference schedule last summer, Texas’ home finale against Baylor looked like it would be a very important Big Monday showdown. Although the consensus was that Kansas was once again the prohibitive favorite, both the Bears and Longhorns would likely be battling for seeding in both the Big 12 and NCAA tournaments. Baylor would probably be playing for the right to play its NCAA opening weekend games in Austin, while the Horns would be working towards their fifteenth consecutive NCAA appearance, and perhaps a favorable draw that would feed into the Arlington regional.

Instead, tonight’s game is huge for very different reasons. The Bears have lost four out of their last five and currently sit in the “First Four Out” of Joe Lunardi’s latest Bracket Math ($), with Kansas coming to town on Saturday. While a win over Texas does nothing to improve Baylor’s lot, a defeat at the hands of a Longhorn squad holding an RPI of 122 would be crippling.

There’s also the distinct possibility that the Bears could finish the season below .500 in the Big 12, with only one of their league wins coming against a team projected to be in the NCAAs. Earlier this season, Lunardi also ran the numbers ($) on teams who made the NCAA field with a losing record in conference play. In the last 10 seasons, only nine squads earned at-large bids with losing records in their leagues. Six of those nine teams had non-conference strength of schedules that ranked in the top 50 nationally; Baylor’s is ranked 43rd.

The numbers would seem to give the Bears some hope that they could survive losses in their last two games, especially with all of the horrible losses suffered by other bubble teams this weekend. Still, antiperspirant sales would skyrocket in Waco ahead of Selection Sunday if the Bears were to lose to both Texas and Kansas this week. That would give Baylor a 1-6 record in its last seven games, and an 8-10 mark in the conference. It’s safe to say that tonight’s game is a must-win for the reeling Bears.

For Texas, the stakes are much lower. The Longhorns have no shot at an at-large bid to the NCAAs, and would need to win four games in four days at the Big 12 Championship in Kansas City to make the field. There are still post-season options in the form of the NIT and CBI, but as we explained in the TCU game preview two weeks ago, even the NIT looks like a long shot. Although the rule was removed that requires NIT teams to have a .500 record, no team with a losing mark has ever actually been invited to the tournament. Even with wins against Baylor and Texas Tech this week, the Horns would still have to win their opener in KC and then upset the No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the quarterfinals just to reach that .500 mark.

The Longhorns could still be selected for the College Basketball Invitational with a losing record, but there’s no guarantee that Texas would even accept that bid. The CBI is a 16-team tournament that culminates with a best-of-three championship series, with all games at campus sites. In the five-year history of the event, six of the 80 participating teams played with a losing record, and all were from the Big East or Pac-12. As long as the Horns avoid losing their next three games, it’s hard to imagine the Gazelle Group not inviting Texas, which participates in many of its November tournaments. Still, it’s incredibly sobering to reflect upon how far expectations have fallen in just six short months.

Meet the Bears

For an in-depth look at the Baylor roster and the team’s tendencies, check out LRT’s game preview from the first meeting between these two teams.

The first match-up

In the first Big 12 game of the year, it was overworked freshman point guard Javan Felix who shouldered the load for Texas. With the Longhorns down nine at the half, Felix came out of the locker room firing and poured in 15 second-half points to carry the Horns into overtime at Baylor.

In the extra period, Felix scored the first four points for Texas, which led by one with only 1:29 to go. The Bears responded with three free throws over the next half-minute, leaving the Horns with a two-point deficit, the ball, and 50 seconds to go. But, after leading the Texas upset bid all afternoon, it was Felix who missed an ugly turnaround jumper to tie the game with 30 seconds to go. After a few more Baylor free throws and some desperation attempts from Texas, the Bears escaped with a seven-point win in overtime.

The biggest difference in the game was Baylor’s composure at the free-throw line. The Bears were more aggressive all afternoon, hustling for rebounds and loose balls, while the big men repeatedly got to the rim against the Texas frontcourt. All told, Baylor shot 45 free throws in the game, knocking down 80% of their attempts. In a game that had to go an extra five minutes to decide the winner, missing just a free throw or two during regulation could have resulted in a loss for Baylor.

The Bears were led by a 25-point performance from Pierre Jackson (No. 55). He scored 11 of those points in overtime, including 9-of-11 shooting at the charity stripe in the extra period. Baylor’s twin towers, Cory Jefferson (No. 34) and Isaiah Austin (No. 21), combined for 33 points and 22 rebounds against the overmatched Texas forwards.

Since then…

Thanks to a quirk in the schedule, Baylor and Texas have gone more than eight weeks between their two meetings this season. The Bears are now sitting in sixth place in the Big 12, just one game behind Iowa State with two games to go. Unfortunately, seven of their eight wins have come against the four teams below them in the standings, with their home win against Oklahoma State providing the only victory against an upper-division Big 12 team.

The struggles have intensified in recent weeks. Baylor has lost four out of five, including a heartbreaking defeat against Kansas State on Saturday. The Bears never let the Wildcats get ahead by more than six in the second half, and ended up with the ball and a second left in a tie game. A full-court heave from rarely-used Jacob Neubert went out of bounds untouched, giving K-State the ball under its own basket. The Bears lost Rodney McGruder on staggered screens along the baseline, and he popped out to the wing for a game-winning three at the buzzer.

The difficulties of the long conference season have seemed to weigh the most on 7’1″ freshman Austin, who has been visibly frustrated during the team’s last few games. In the team’s last ten games, Austin’s offensive rating has dipped below 100 in six contests, reaching the low 70’s in games against Iowa State and West Virginia. His three-point percentage has also taken a slight dip in conference play, with just 24.2% of his attempts going down in the last ten games.

Although he’s still averaging more than 13 points per game in Big 12 play, Austin’s inconsistencies have been frustrating. The freshman seems to be lacking a soft touch on the hook and turnaround in his post-up opportunities, and he now appears to be a bit timid in face-up situations, lacking the fluidity that allowed him to stretch the floor and made him such a difficult match-up.

With Austin regressing slightly on the offensive end, Jefferson has quietly become one of the most underrated players in the Big 12. Much of that is due to the fact that the Bears are mired in the middle of the league standings, giving his solid performances less attention from the media. Jefferson is averaging 11 points and nearly eight boards in conference games, while also providing an intimidating interior presence on the defensive end. His excellent timing makes him a formidable shot blocker, which repeatedly caused issues for Kansas State in Saturday’s close-fought game.

As always, the straw that stirs Scott Drew’s drink — a Dr. Pepper, of course — is the point guard, Jackson. The senior leads the Big 12 in both points and assists, scoring 18.6 points against league opponents while dishing out 6.5 dimes per game. Even though turnovers continue to be a problem for Jackson, all of the other fantastic things he does on the court far outweigh those issues.

When Jackson is on his game and dissecting opponents on the bounce, the Baylor offense can be a thing of beauty. It’s not unsurprising, then, that in most of Baylor’s conference losses, the point guard can be found chucking up an inordinate amount of threes. In Baylor’s eight Big 12 defeats, Jackson averaged more than eight three-point attempts, and made only 31.3% of them. In the team’s eight league wins, Pierre averaged just over six attempts and made 38% of those looks.

Keys to the game

1) Play tougher inside – Baylor abused the Longhorns in the paint during their first meeting. Jefferson and Austin both posted double-doubles, with Jefferson also earning 14 trips to the line. The Texas big men played terrible interior defense, and they repeatedly found themselves out of position on the glass. The Longhorns allowed Baylor to reclaim 39.1% of its missed shots, including three offensive boards that all came in one 93-second possession late in regulation.

Tonight, the Texas frontcourt must do a better job limiting those second-chance points and must also play much better defense against Jefferson and Austin. With the troubles that the Longhorn bigs have had defending their counterparts all season long, that could be a very tough task.

2) Limit Jackson’s penetration – It was outlined above just how much of a difference Jackson makes when he is aggressive with the bounce. Although the Bears have a capable frontcourt that can get points in the traditional manner, Baylor’s offense is at its best when Jackson is utilizing ball screens to penetrate and start the help-defense domino effect. His driving ability frees up Austin and Jefferson inside, and it sets up sharpshooter Brady Heslip (No. 5) for numerous wide-open threes.

In the first game preview, it was mentioned that Jackson and the Bears struggled against non-conference opponents who blitzed Baylor’s ball screens. With Austin currently struggling to knock down his threes, that becomes an even more important strategy. His usefulness as a pick-and-pop guy decreases, and the pick-and-roll is much easier to defend with help. If the Longhorns can limit the number of drives by Jackson — hopefully by doubling hard on those ball screens — it will force Baylor to create shots in other ways, something that the team has had a hard time doing.

3) Be alert in transition defense – One of the other ways that Baylor often scores is by beating opponents in transition. The Bears do a fantastic job of running the floor and excel at getting open looks from the perimeter and easy finishes at the rim when opponents are still trying to set up defensively. Texas has especially struggled at giving up transition points in recent games, so this is a major cause for concern in tonight’s match-up. The Longhorns have to force Baylor score from half-court sets, or else they will have a tough time keeping up on the scoreboard.

Although it has been more than 10 weeks since the Texas Longhorns have put together a winning streak, the team still enters this afternoon’s showdown with Oklahoma State riding some momentum. Thanks to a furious 22-point comeback in the final eight minutes, Texas stormed back against rival Oklahoma on Wednesday night, eventually earning a 92-86 victory in overtime.

The emotional comeback rejuvenated a team that looked to be sleepwalking on defense for the first 30 minutes, and it energized the bench in a way seen only a few times in this disastrous season. The victory also gave the team some confidence as it heads down the home stretch of the season, although it’s possible Coach Rick Barnes may have been a bit too caught up in the moment. “I don’t think there’s a team in the country that wants to play Texas,” he told reporters after the game.

While the proud coach may have overstated things, it’s undeniable that the Longhorns have looked like a different team since the return of Myck Kabongo. The team has slashed its turnover rate since his return, and the Horns’ two best offensive efficiency marks of the season have come in the last three games. Although Texas still doesn’t knock down its shots with consistency, there is more fluidity to the offense on most possessions.

Even with the improvements on offense, it’s hard to believe that Texas is somehow still in a position to avoid the first round of the Big 12 tournament and a potential quarterfinal matchup with the league’s first or second-place team. Although the odds are slim, the Longhorns could still grab the 6-seed in the Big 12 tourney by winning out, if Baylor loses to Kansas State and Kansas on the final two Saturdays of the season. To summarize and thus avoid getting into the minutiae of tiebreaking principles, the Longhorns would be slotted ahead of the Bears thanks to wins over Iowa State and Oklahoma.

Of course, the biggest hurdle in that scenario is Texas earning a very tough road win today. Oklahoma State is in the midst of its best season in nearly a decade, and historic Gallagher-Iba Arena is once again filling up and providing an intimidating home-court advantage. The Cowboys have lost just twice at home this year — by a combined two points — and the second of those losses took two overtimes to sort out. It’s safe to say that it will be a stiff challenge for the young Horns this afternoon, but at least there’s actually still something besides pride that this team can play for.

Meet the Cowboys

For an in-depth look at the Oklahoma State roster, check out LRT’s game preview from the first meeting between these two teams.

The first match-up

In the final game without point guard Myck Kabongo, the Longhorns struggled to put the ball in the basket and never really challenged Oklahoma State in a 72-59 loss, the first OSU victory at the Erwin Center since 2004. Texas made only one of its 18 three-point attempts, the worst percentage ever by a Longhorn team, with the minimum qualification of at least 10 tries. Coming into the game, Oklahoma State opponents had made 34% of their shots from behind the arc.

Although the Longhorns actually bested their season average in the turnover department, the team still struggled to get any offensive flow thanks to numerous miscues by point guard Javan Felix. The freshman coughed it up eight times on the afternoon, while only logging one assist.

It was fellow freshmen Demarcus Holland and Ioannis Papapetrou who kept Texas in the game, combining for 28 points on 41.6% shooting. Unfortunately, the pair was also responsible for eight of the 17 three-point misses for Texas on the afternoon. Holland’s performance against Oklahoma State elevated him into the starting lineup days later against Iowa State, a role he has held for the last five games.

All-everything guard Marcus Smart (No. 33) led the way for Oklahoma State, pouring in 23 points to make up for seven turnovers. He was a strong 3-for-6 from long range, despite hitting just 27.7% of his three-point attempts prior to that game. OSU also enjoyed a solid performance from Le’Bryan Nash (No. 2), who had been consistently inconsistent all season. The 6’7″ sophomore snagged nine rebounds, a marked improvement in an area where he had been repeatedly under-performing.

It wasn’t only Nash who hit the glass hard, as Oklahoma State dominated the rebounding battle. The Cowboys reclaimed more than 41% of their missed shots, and they turned those extended possessions into an extra 14 points. On the other end of the floor, the Longhorns could only corral 25.6% of their misses against the long, athletic Cowboy roster. With struggles on the glass and struggles from the field, Texas was fortunate to limit the final margin to only 13 points.

Since then…

The victory over Texas was the fifth consecutive win for Oklahoma State, and it kept them just a game out of first place. The Pokes would then reel off two more, including a thrilling overtime win against in-state rival Oklahoma, which set up a monumental showdown with Kansas for first place.

Earlier in the year, Oklahoma State had ended the Jayhawks’ 33-game home winning streak, becoming just the second visiting team in 104 games to leave Phog Allen Fieldhouse with a win. When Smart punctuated the upset by doing a flashy backflip across the court, KU fans and players circled February 20th on the calendar, looking forward to the chance for revenge. The stage was only made bigger by the fact that both teams entered the game at 9-3 in Big 12 play and were squaring off for first place.

It would take two overtimes to decide the game, and a slew of whistles in the extra periods sucked much of the excitement out of an otherwise epic battle. Kansas made only one field goal in the two overtimes, but that one hoop would prove to be the difference. A jumper from Naadir Tharpe just inside the free throw line put Kansas ahead with 16.5 seconds left, and Markel Brown’s turnaround attempt from the perimeter drew iron in the final seconds.

The loss put the Cowboys just a game back of Kansas and Kansas State, but they have kept pace with the league leaders over the last week. Oklahoma State gets one more crack at the Wildcats when they host KSU in the season finale, but the team will still need outside help to catch up with Kansas. The Jayhawks have home games remaining against West Virginia and Texas Tech, but close out the year at Baylor. Although anything can happen, the schedule certainly seems to favor KU.

If Oklahoma State is going to run the table and finish 14-4 in league play, a big reason could be the emergence of Nash. The sophomore was a McDonald’s All-American, but never lived up to the hype in his freshman campaign. This year, he ceded the leadership role to Smart, but still was struggling to produce consistently. Nash often failed to play good defense, took poor position on rebounds, and liked to hang out on the perimeter, despite a three-point percentage hovering around the Mendoza line.

There is hope that the light has finally clicked on for Nash, however. In Wednesday night’s game against TCU, the sophomore was aggressive from the opening tip. He posted up and exploited his size advantage when mismatches arose. When facing bigger players who lacked foot speed, he would face up and drive to the rim. It all added up to a career high for Nash, who scored 28 and ripped down six boards in front of his family and friends who made the trip to Fort Worth from Dallas.

If Nash continues to give that kind of effort, the Cowboys will be very difficult to slow down the rest of the year. Of course, Nash’s sudden surge is not the only new wrinkle that opponents will now have to worry about. Guard Brian Williams (No. 4) is seeing even more minutes as he works his way back from a broken wrist, giving Oklahoma State additional length on the perimeter and another lockdown defender.

That defensive presence isn’t all that Williams brings to the table. Although his perimeter D is what he’s best known for, Williams averaged more than 16 points in the last six games of 2011-12. After missing the first 18 games of this season due to that broken wrist, it will likely take the sophomore a little while to build back up to that dominant level. When he does, an already-talented Oklahoma State team is going to be even scarier.

Keys to the game

1) Knock down the threes – The perimeter is one area where Oklahoma State opponents actually find success, but Texas was completely useless behind the arc in the first game between these two teams. The Longhorns should easily be able to improve upon the 5.6% mark they posted in that game, but they will need to do much better this afternoon to keep themselves competitive in the rematch.

In the last three games, Texas has connected on 35.2% of its three-point attempts. While the season average for the Horns is still an ugly 28.8%, the numbers are at least trending in the right direction. Thanks to OSU’s great shot blocking skills and ability to turn back most dribble penetration, the Longhorns are going to have to knock down threes to win this game. If they can continue with their recent trend, the Horns will have a shot, but a repeat of their performance in the first game could make things ugly in a hurry.

2) Battle on the boards – Texas was dominated on the glass when the teams first played in Austin, but the Horns were without sophomore forward Jonathan Holmes. If the Horns hope to stay in the game this afternoon, they will have to drastically improve upon their 58.5% mark on the defensive glass, and will have to win more second chances on the other end of the court.

The Cowboys tend to go with a four-out look, and their forwards are incredibly springy and athletic. If Texas elects to play both Holmes and Connor Lammert at the same time, the pair will have to get a body on the very slippery OSU forwards when shots go up. The Longhorn guards will also have to be alert, as Smart rebounds incredibly well from the perimeter. The Longhorns cannot afford to get into a shootout with the Pokes, so they will have to close out their defensive possessions with strong boards and eliminate second chances for OSU.

3) Avoid perimeter turnovers – Smart has some of the quickest hands in the nation, posting the country’s ninth-best steal rate. The rest of OSU’s perimeter D has length that makes it very difficult to penetrate or even pass it around the arc. As Texas learned in the first game, controlling the ball can be very tough against the Cowboys. Having Kabongo available this time around will certainly make a difference, but Texas still has to be careful.

While it’s obvious that turnovers hurt the offense by wasting possessions, miscues on the perimeter are even more deadly when playing on the road. Guard-to-guard passes that are swiped are almost always turned into a fast-break bucket, while balls stripped from the hands of a guard usually produce the same result.

In front of a pumped-up crowd at one of the toughest road venues around, live-ball turnovers that lead to fast-break points will only whip the crowd into more of a frenzy and build momentum for the home team. Texas not only needs to limit its turnovers this afternoon, but also has to hope that any miscues are mostly of the dead-ball variety.

It has been eight years since the Oklahoma Sooners have come to Austin and knocked off the Longhorns at the Frank Erwin Center. With Texas struggling to a 4-10 mark in league play and the Sooners looking downright dominant in recent weeks, tonight could be the night that Lon Kruger and Oklahoma finally break that streak.

For the Sooners, ending the road woes against their Red River rivals would only be a bonus. Current seniors Steven Pledger, Andrew Fitzgerald, and Casey Arent have never made it to the NCAA tournament during their four years in Norman, and that dream is now just weeks away from being realized. In Joe Lunardi’s latest S-curve update ($), the Sooners are now considered “safely in,” meaning they have odds of greater than 80% to make the field. Barring a complete meltdown over the last two weeks of the season, Oklahoma should make its long-awaited return to March Madness. Now, it’s all about seeding.

Lunardi currently has the Sooners slotted as a 9-seed, meaning that they would have the unenviable task of matching up with a 1-seed if they were to survive to the third round. Of Oklahoma’s four remaining regular season games, three are against the bottom four teams in the Big 12. The fourth is against Iowa State, a team which blew out Oklahoma in Ames earlier this year. Fortunately for OU, the Cyclones have struggled mightily on the road, meaning that Oklahoma could conceivably run the table and finish 13-5 in the conference. Ken Pomeroy has the Sooners favored in every game remaining, and his win probabilities give OU a cumulative WP of 30.5% to finish 4-0.

With other teams playing and losing down the stretch, it’s not outside the realm of possibility for Oklahoma to climb a few seed lines and avoid that tough second-round matchup. Tonight is the biggest road test remaining for the Sooners, and it could easily be classified as a “trap game” with Iowa State waiting for OU on Saturday. It looks extremely unlikely that Oklahoma could miss the NCAAs at this point, but a loss tonight would certainly make it tougher to climb off of those 8 and 9-seed lines.

Meet the Sooners

For an in-depth look at the Oklahoma roster, check out LRT’s game preview from the first meeting between these two teams.

The first match-up

Oklahoma and Texas got off to an ugly start when the teams first met on MLK Day. The Longhorns turned it over eight times before the first media timeout, while the Sooners were unable to convert that into a big lead thanks to two of their own turnovers and five missed shots. Texas settled down and managed to recover from that brutal start, pulling ahead by as many as four points midway through the first half.

With just under seven minutes to go, sophomore forward Jonathan Holmes broke a bone in his hand and had to leave the game. Although a triple from Sheldon McClellan would give Texas its largest lead at five points just a few minutes later, the loss of Holmes’ interior presence would quickly become the difference in the game.

With Holmes out of action, OU’s Romero Osby took over and had the breakout performance of what will likely be an all-conference season. The senior big man scored Oklahoma’s last eight points before the half, and he finished with a monster line of 29 points, eight boards, and two blocks. Fellow forward Amath M’Baye also had a great performance, although his numbers were overshadowed by the gargantuan effort by Osby. M’Baye added 15 points and five boards to help the Sooners to victory.

The Longhorns did manage to make things interesting in the final minutes, as McClellan single-handedly kept Texas in it and Ioannis Papapetrou sank some desperation threes in the waning seconds. The Longhorns trailed by as many as 11 points with less than two minutes to go, but Papapetrou’s pair of threes made the final score look a little more respectable. The Greek forward finished with 12 points, but it was McClellan’s 25 that kept Texas from getting blown out. On the night, Sheldon took nearly a third of the team’s shots and posted an excellent 50% mark from the field.

Since then…

Although that performance against Texas was by far the best of the year for Osby, he has not slowed down over the last five weeks. In the nine games since beating the Longhorns, he is averaging 14 points and 8.2 rebounds per game. Making things even more difficult for opponents is the consistent play from OU’s other forward, M’Baye. The Wyoming transfer has been nearly as impressive in league play, averaging 10.5 and 5.9 in his last nine games.

Most importantly, the Sooners are also reaping the benefits of a hot Steven Pledger. Coming into the season, expectations were high for the senior, who was the leading returning scorer in the league. Last year, he made more than 41% of his threes, so naturally there would be some amount of regression. Unfortunately, the drop-off was much steeper than Pledger and OU fans had hoped, as he made just 33.6% of his long-range looks through the first 23 games of the year.

However, it seems that Pledger has chosen the right time to peak. In the team’s last three games, he’s made 56.4% of his shots from the field, including 52.2% of his threes. The Sooners have been in the bottom half of D-I hoops when it comes to sinking their treys, and as a result they have taken only about a quarter of their shots from long range. Having Pledger re-emerge as a three-point threat gives opposing defenses another facet to game plan for, and makes it even tougher to focus on stopping that inside tandem of Osby and M’Baye.

Pledger is not the only senior to step up in recent weeks. Sam Grooms has taken charge at the point, even earning a start on Saturday against Baylor. With Buddy Hield still sidelined with a broken bone in his foot and Isaiah Cousins scuttling in conference play, Grooms’ steady leadership has kept OU clicking.

Although he’s not much of a long-range threat, Grooms has been more aggressive with the ball recently, finding the cracks created when Osby and M’Baye step out and stretch the defense. The senior guard has 13 assists in his last three games, and he shot 81.8% from the field in the team’s heartbreaking overtime loss at Oklahoma State. Grooms took a hard fall in Saturday’s win over Baylor and appeared to injure his hip, but did return to action. With a few days of rest, it’s unlikely that any lingering effects will slow him down tonight.

Keys to the game

1) Limit second chance points – The Sooners do not shoot the ball exceptionally well, with their 48% effective field goal mark actually checking in just a bit below the national average. OU makes up for that with fairly strong numbers on the offensive glass, while the Longhorns have had difficulty all season in keeping opponents from reclaiming missed shots.

In the first meeting between these two teams, Texas did manage to hold OU below its season average, allowing the Sooners to corral only 30% of their missed shots. If Texas hopes to pull off the upset at home tonight, the team will once again have to close out their defensive possessions with strong rebounding.

2) Attack offensively – The Longhorns have looked like a competent team on offense when they actually drive the basketball and move it with quick, smart passing. Unfortunately, that approach tends to be the exception rather than the rule this season, with the Horns instead settling for long jumpers at the end of possessions, often with a defender in their face.

While being aggressive will help a Texas team that has struggled to hit jump shots this year, it will also hopefully saddle Oklahoma with some fouls. While Fitzgerald is still a serviceable forward, the drop-off in talent after M’Baye and Osby is considerable. Getting either of those players to the bench will be a huge boost for Texas’ chances.

Aggression can also draw fouls on the Oklahoma guards, which can expose some depth issues there, as well. With Hield’s broken foot, Cousins becomes the primary back-up in the backcourt, and he is mired in a terrible slump. If Grooms finds himself battling foul trouble, as he did on Saturday, the Longhorns would be able to take advantage of Cousins and force mistakes by the frustrated freshman.

3) Limit mistakes – The Sooners are not a team that pressures defensively and forces many turnovers, but that didn’t stop Texas from coughing it up on nearly every possession in the first five minutes of the game in Norman. With Myck Kabongo now at the point, that hopefully will not be as much of an issue for the Horns tonight. Still, Demarcus Holland and Papapetrou have thrown their share of questionable passes this season, and both should see big minutes in this one. The Texas offense is too anemic to be able to waste possessions and still win games, especially against a team that doesn’t usually try to cause turnovers.